{ "ticker": { "uuid": "54cb6b9e-b02f-4ba5-8268-67e27ac2cbfe", "symbol": "601229", "name": "Bank of Shanghai Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 77.791, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -15.633, "architecture_energy": 15.827, "architecture_maturity": 28.723, "architecture_confidence": 60.161, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.41, "rotation_up": 33.81, "upward_expansion": 25.0, "deceleration": 49.79, "rotation_down": 24.0, "downward_expansion": 49.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.222667, 9.123455, 9.115524, 9.228131 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 9.21, "trend_reference": 9.370402, "distance_from_trend": -0.017118, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.936089, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.160521, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.983768, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.003247, "excess_performance": 0.039957, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.017118, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028511, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.160521, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026608, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.019838, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.140402, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.003247, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.363506, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 306124241, "relative_activity": 1.534661, "balance": 1.363506, "dry_up": 1.661581, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040037, "annualized_volatility": 0.196053, "from_high_reference": -0.11866, "from_low_reference": 0.072679 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.370402, "fair_value_reference": 7.936089, "structural_low": 8.660622, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.01145, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.010557, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.034232, "worst_return": -0.090278, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.009027, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.01097, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.095, "worst_return": -0.106945, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.043419, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.032865, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.301667, "worst_return": -0.133175, "sufficient": false 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"typical_volume": 181838171.35, "trend": 9.443402, "fair_value": 7.855172, "relative_strength": -0.000764, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.78555, "energy": 37.645621, "activity_lines": [ 8.961333, 8.986688, 9.113887, 9.257757 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.14, "volume": 318228853, "typical_volume": 184842290.95, "trend": 9.415735, "fair_value": 7.881921, "relative_strength": -0.160923, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.850779, "energy": 25.491139, "activity_lines": [ 9.032, 9.011261, 9.09983, 9.238182 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.45, "volume": 395232009, "typical_volume": 194019142.25, "trend": 9.400069, "fair_value": 7.909995, "relative_strength": 3.0182, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.8081, "energy": 13.403306, "activity_lines": [ 9.186, 9.094488, 9.118106, 9.240393 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.21, "volume": 306124241, "typical_volume": 199473465.7, "trend": 9.370402, "fair_value": 7.936089, "relative_strength": -1.983768, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.632694, "energy": 15.827235, "activity_lines": [ 9.222667, 9.123455, 9.115524, 9.228131 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }