{ "ticker": { "uuid": "54cba721-7ec8-40d9-8eeb-fb58118a3146", "symbol": "PEB", "name": "Pebble Beach Systems Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 29.05, "architecture_energy": 15.29, "architecture_maturity": 42.798, "architecture_confidence": 92.777, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.73, "rotation_up": 21.55, "upward_expansion": 50.99, "deceleration": 92.57, "rotation_down": 26.87, "downward_expansion": 16.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.2282, 0.232055, 0.229717, 0.220335 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.225, "trend_reference": 0.2087, "distance_from_trend": 0.078103, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.126147, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.783627, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.242376, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.2, "excess_performance": 0.148765, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.078103, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091908, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.783627, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129719, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.082424, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.20918, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.2, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.459683, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 327553, "relative_activity": 0.349317, "balance": 1.459683, "dry_up": 0.753899, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.142913, "annualized_volatility": 0.554924, "from_high_reference": -0.224138, "from_low_reference": 0.680861 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.2087, "fair_value_reference": 0.126147, "structural_low": 0.1605, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.022497, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.023147, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.103448, "worst_return": -0.168033, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.009033, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.209302, "worst_return": -0.302469, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.023256, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.045663, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.209677, "worst_return": -0.403292, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.369565, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.343327, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.068966, "worst_return": -0.409302, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.1875, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023256, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.113636, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.188, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.261084, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.447368, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.068966, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.129032, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.119403, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.114583, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.228571, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042553, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021739, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.07, "volume": 272000, "typical_volume": 316958.8, "trend": 0.07425, "fair_value": 0.097575, "relative_strength": -3.751314, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": 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"regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.771252, "energy": 17.749291, "activity_lines": [ 0.231333, 0.235455, 0.22731, 0.217551 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.232, "volume": 1266372, "typical_volume": 946490.95, "trend": 0.207533, "fair_value": 0.125138, "relative_strength": 12.450489, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.335912, "energy": 16.701728, "activity_lines": [ 0.230333, 0.234364, 0.228952, 0.219209 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.225, "volume": 327553, "typical_volume": 937695.8, "trend": 0.2087, "fair_value": 0.126147, "relative_strength": 8.242376, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.049631, "energy": 15.289519, "activity_lines": [ 0.2282, 0.232055, 0.229717, 0.220335 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }