{ "ticker": { "uuid": "54cef4d3-f212-4073-8842-09f91ac3c449", "symbol": "INFL", "name": "Amundi Euro Inflation Expectations 2-10Y UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 77.276, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.801, "architecture_energy": 54.284, "architecture_maturity": 4.701, "architecture_confidence": 68.257, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.7, "rotation_up": 62.98, "upward_expansion": 83.99, "deceleration": 47.42, "rotation_down": 12.9, "downward_expansion": 10.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 120.636667, 120.356728, 120.223952, 119.904129 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 120.32, "trend_reference": 119.275, "distance_from_trend": 0.008761, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 115.960577, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.037594, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.819846, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.027147, "excess_performance": -0.143745, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008761, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009958, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.037594, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005096, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.128198, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029468, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.027147, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.766624, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8619, "relative_activity": 0.481425, "balance": 0.766624, "dry_up": 0.559372, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.00819, "annualized_volatility": 0.034605, "from_high_reference": -0.021709, "from_low_reference": 0.036973 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 119.275, "fair_value_reference": 115.960577, "structural_low": 116.660004, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 46, "median_return": 0.000953, "positive_rate": 0.543478, "directional_follow_through": 0.543478, "median_excess_return": -0.000527, "regime_survival": 0.804348, "best_return": 0.038261, "worst_return": -0.022191, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.000638, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.0432, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.080035, "worst_return": -0.018188, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.005838, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.100608, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.080725, "worst_return": -0.007421, 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-13.67056, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.310828, "energy": 16.640623, "activity_lines": [ 119.634667, 119.878728, 119.829143, 119.342236 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 120.139999, "volume": 7859, "typical_volume": 17797.0, "trend": 118.730333, "fair_value": 115.79609, "relative_strength": -12.589616, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.970359, "energy": 14.687631, "activity_lines": [ 119.755334, 119.889455, 119.893571, 119.440043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 120.900002, "volume": 9445, "typical_volume": 18028.75, "trend": 118.871999, "fair_value": 115.843461, "relative_strength": -10.429004, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.952201, "energy": 29.662028, "activity_lines": [ 120.138667, 120.043637, 120.014905, 119.580021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 120.989998, "volume": 16941, "typical_volume": 18606.65, "trend": 119.018666, "fair_value": 115.886795, "relative_strength": -9.875979, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.846752, "energy": 47.104145, "activity_lines": [ 120.502, 120.204, 120.126095, 119.716666 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 120.760002, "volume": 5053, "typical_volume": 18072.95, "trend": 119.155666, "fair_value": 115.925, "relative_strength": -10.286152, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.631556, "energy": 56.179249, "activity_lines": [ 120.693334, 120.322728, 120.19919, 119.829011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 120.32, "volume": 8619, "typical_volume": 17903.1, "trend": 119.275, "fair_value": 115.960577, "relative_strength": -12.819846, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.801239, "energy": 54.284167, "activity_lines": [ 120.636667, 120.356728, 120.223952, 119.904129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }