{ "ticker": { "uuid": "54cfc4eb-21e2-4985-9e1d-0cca0886a8f3", "symbol": "VLEU", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy Low Vol EuropeUCITS ETF Cap", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 84.268, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.314, "architecture_energy": 84.947, "architecture_maturity": 34.802, "architecture_confidence": 78.86, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.56, "rotation_up": 75.69, "upward_expansion": 96.76, "deceleration": 41.58, "rotation_down": 18.07, "downward_expansion": 18.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 225.239997, 223.851816, 219.960474, 217.495052 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 227.649994, "trend_reference": 214.76, "distance_from_trend": 0.06002, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 186.766346, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.218903, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.404625, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.072556, "excess_performance": 0.007916, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.06002, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035166, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.218903, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055699, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.014046, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021125, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.072556, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.733424, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 82, "relative_activity": 0.353982, "balance": 0.733424, "dry_up": 0.505072, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014749, "annualized_volatility": 0.141683, "from_high_reference": -0.001973, "from_low_reference": 0.198789 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 214.76, "fair_value_reference": 186.766346, "structural_low": 197.5, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.003671, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.007071, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.082192, "worst_return": -0.083124, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.023959, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.002529, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.068107, "worst_return": -0.043526, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.042829, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.033245, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.08655, "worst_return": -0.115058, "sufficient": true }, { 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212.627935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 225.649994, "volume": 340, "typical_volume": 367.3, "trend": 211.041333, "fair_value": 184.646923, "relative_strength": 3.519764, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.727388, "energy": 88.230084, "activity_lines": [ 221.266665, 218.033634, 215.037379, 213.627827 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 222.699997, "volume": 674, "typical_volume": 391.35, "trend": 211.866666, "fair_value": 185.066794, "relative_strength": 4.862663, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.275315, "energy": 84.755531, "activity_lines": [ 222.356664, 219.302725, 215.899522, 214.379999 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 224.0, "volume": 349, "typical_volume": 407.35, "trend": 212.601666, "fair_value": 185.481923, "relative_strength": 6.243056, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.914742, "energy": 86.552497, "activity_lines": [ 223.279998, 220.612725, 216.867617, 215.162795 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 224.350006, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 388.1, "trend": 213.345, "fair_value": 185.886089, "relative_strength": 5.06397, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.437282, "energy": 85.6825, "activity_lines": [ 223.89, 221.756363, 217.863571, 215.920752 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 224.149994, "volume": 35, "typical_volume": 333.2, "trend": 214.053333, "fair_value": 186.315512, "relative_strength": 2.667025, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.250135, "energy": 78.221793, "activity_lines": [ 224.079999, 222.574544, 218.781427, 216.617849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 227.649994, "volume": 82, "typical_volume": 231.65, "trend": 214.76, "fair_value": 186.766346, "relative_strength": 1.404625, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.314117, "energy": 84.947393, "activity_lines": [ 225.239997, 223.851816, 219.960474, 217.495052 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }