{ "ticker": { "uuid": "54cfd307-351b-427d-833b-a2dfbb08b665", "symbol": "ACRV", "name": "Acrivon Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.719, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -24.71, "architecture_energy": 14.269, "architecture_maturity": 18.468, "architecture_confidence": 73.343, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.95, "rotation_up": 21.52, "upward_expansion": 13.6, "deceleration": 52.39, "rotation_down": 41.45, "downward_expansion": 63.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.660667, 1.673273, 1.686952, 1.679505 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.73, "trend_reference": 1.69, "distance_from_trend": 0.023669, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.458301, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.61196, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.5366, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.035928, "excess_performance": -0.151525, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.023669, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106923, "read": "Falling" 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1.27, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.102857, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.113929, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.111732, "worst_return": -0.177136, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.167598, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.083373, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.325153, "worst_return": -0.173184, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.334373, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.30431, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.018405, "worst_return": -0.687151, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.171779, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010929, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.009662, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.067039, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.184049, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"close": 1.72, "volume": 1275373, "typical_volume": 3097828.3, "trend": 1.783333, "fair_value": 4.799968, "relative_strength": -14.597804, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.887831, "energy": 22.73003, "activity_lines": [ 1.628, 1.639636, 1.67181, 1.690581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.96, "volume": 3210307, "typical_volume": 3130039.15, "trend": 1.764333, "fair_value": 4.732981, "relative_strength": -4.614766, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.584445, "energy": 11.129826, "activity_lines": [ 1.756, 1.685636, 1.701143, 1.701978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.75, "volume": 3457623, "typical_volume": 2956545.5, "trend": 1.750667, "fair_value": 4.662147, "relative_strength": -11.199983, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.374226, "energy": 15.62683, "activity_lines": [ 1.778667, 1.695818, 1.708429, 1.701054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.6, "volume": 969056, "typical_volume": 2722944.85, "trend": 1.722667, "fair_value": 4.59234, "relative_strength": -17.384585, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.470714, "energy": 9.938061, "activity_lines": [ 1.733333, 1.682909, 1.700286, 1.691333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.5, "volume": 2054309, "typical_volume": 2680363.8, "trend": 1.690667, "fair_value": 4.526635, "relative_strength": -22.917406, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.971905, "energy": 17.363285, "activity_lines": [ 1.652667, 1.654909, 1.682381, 1.676968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.73, "volume": 1362819, "typical_volume": 2567235.55, "trend": 1.69, "fair_value": 4.458301, "relative_strength": -15.5366, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.709722, "energy": 14.268592, "activity_lines": [ 1.660667, 1.673273, 1.686952, 1.679505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }