{ "ticker": { "uuid": "54d1959e-44d8-40e2-8167-e75e47be334e", "symbol": "AB", "name": "AB Science S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.391, "architecture_energy": 55.263, "architecture_maturity": 69.683, "architecture_confidence": 90.688, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.34, "rotation_up": 24.06, "upward_expansion": 12.36, "deceleration": 58.1, "rotation_down": 60.77, "downward_expansion": 85.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.7092, 0.733436, 0.830686, 0.926895 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.0, "trend_reference": 1.062333, "distance_from_trend": -0.058676, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.592045, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.371877, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.738848, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.275362, "excess_performance": -0.328674, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.058676, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132199, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.371877, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.112473, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.187388, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070157, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.275362, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.45354, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5122725, "relative_activity": 4.061548, "balance": 1.45354, "dry_up": 2.38047, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.118462, "annualized_volatility": 1.004278, "from_high_reference": -0.404762, "from_low_reference": 0.996008 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.062333, "fair_value_reference": 1.592045, "structural_low": 0.501, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.029253, "positive_rate": 0.447368, "directional_follow_through": 0.552632, "median_excess_return": -0.021867, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.713341, "worst_return": -0.440189, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.050388, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.047709, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.763265, "worst_return": -0.559483, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.128067, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.114263, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.477551, "worst_return": -0.493802, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.282977, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.334375, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.467509, "worst_return": -0.718066, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.531508, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03184, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.229167, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.071742, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.063005, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.289053, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.100346, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.128284, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.051351, "active": false 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"energy": 95.814254, "activity_lines": [ 0.730267, 0.804927, 0.913186, 1.009129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.511, "volume": 1918412, "typical_volume": 911039.5, "trend": 1.1091, "fair_value": 1.624244, "relative_strength": -57.832353, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -94.867635, "energy": 97.600306, "activity_lines": [ 0.641467, 0.741491, 0.865786, 0.968858 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.537, "volume": 2590236, "typical_volume": 1020088.9, "trend": 1.078333, "fair_value": 1.606115, "relative_strength": -55.659063, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.464511, "energy": 93.253001, "activity_lines": [ 0.586933, 0.6916, 0.824562, 0.931948 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.0, "volume": 5122725, "typical_volume": 1261274.0, "trend": 1.062333, "fair_value": 1.592045, "relative_strength": -18.738848, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.391055, "energy": 55.262752, "activity_lines": [ 0.7092, 0.733436, 0.830686, 0.926895 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }