{ "ticker": { "uuid": "54d8615f-4932-4fc4-821b-971f838ae8a7", "symbol": "EEUR", "name": "Invesco MSCI Europe Universal Screened UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.067, "architecture_energy": 71.535, "architecture_maturity": 47.768, "architecture_confidence": 81.562, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.49, "rotation_up": 64.81, "upward_expansion": 87.67, "deceleration": 58.06, "rotation_down": 26.31, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 83.090666, 82.616181, 80.998, 79.545785 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 84.349998, "trend_reference": 78.051333, "distance_from_trend": 0.080699, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 65.922179, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.279539, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.237834, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.098164, "excess_performance": -0.072727, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.080699, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043769, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.279539, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068327, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032378, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016575, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.098164, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.013318, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5242, "relative_activity": 1.67468, "balance": 3.013318, "dry_up": 1.679233, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016278, "annualized_volatility": 0.164194, "from_high_reference": -0.002837, "from_low_reference": 0.253716 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 78.051333, "fair_value_reference": 65.922179, "structural_low": 70.910004, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": 0.009627, "positive_rate": 0.619048, "directional_follow_through": 0.619048, "median_excess_return": -0.003353, "regime_survival": 0.738095, "best_return": 0.054592, "worst_return": -0.047186, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.011209, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.02648, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.067994, "worst_return": -0.046115, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.042334, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.034444, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.08042, "worst_return": -0.127167, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"typical_volume": 2774.0, "trend": 77.120667, "fair_value": 65.381603, "relative_strength": -2.832839, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.694751, "energy": 81.918592, "activity_lines": [ 82.245331, 81.492727, 79.550905, 78.432258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 82.410004, "volume": 6988, "typical_volume": 2955.25, "trend": 77.432334, "fair_value": 65.556795, "relative_strength": -2.055131, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.506019, "energy": 71.267883, "activity_lines": [ 82.341333, 81.815636, 79.994381, 78.773506 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 82.809998, "volume": 4323, "typical_volume": 3061.95, "trend": 77.757334, "fair_value": 65.734551, "relative_strength": -2.220422, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.586241, "energy": 65.449684, "activity_lines": [ 82.503333, 82.106909, 80.441, 79.120452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 84.349998, "volume": 5242, "typical_volume": 3130.15, "trend": 78.051333, "fair_value": 65.922179, "relative_strength": -3.237834, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.067371, "energy": 71.535002, "activity_lines": [ 83.090666, 82.616181, 80.998, 79.545785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }