{ "ticker": { "uuid": "54d916ab-78a3-4ccd-bdbd-5239b3456a71", "symbol": "CION", "name": "Cion Investment Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 94.565, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 9.891, "architecture_energy": 9.644, "architecture_maturity": 23.341, "architecture_confidence": 69.633, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.14, "rotation_up": 31.47, "upward_expansion": 29.3, "deceleration": 47.14, "rotation_down": 24.55, "downward_expansion": 46.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.519129, 6.380254, 6.378536, 6.454217 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.51, "trend_reference": 6.714617, "distance_from_trend": 0.118455, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.686723, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.022991, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.650547, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.02701, "excess_performance": -0.152635, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.118455, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093316, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.022991, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.11336, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.096505, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.14205, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.02701, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.089479, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4908836, "relative_activity": 1.758182, "balance": 1.089479, "dry_up": 1.07463, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069406, "annualized_volatility": 0.516374, "from_high_reference": -0.165153, "from_low_reference": 0.288165 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.714617, "fair_value_reference": 7.686723, "structural_low": 5.83, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.016581, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.038292, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.06601, "worst_return": -0.080564, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.043352, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.021219, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.080507, "worst_return": 0.006197, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.067748, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.015894, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.228137, "worst_return": -0.092641, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.096568, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.214216, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.15841, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.066534, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044311, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": 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6.186243, 6.299715, 6.460357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.96, "volume": 2240551, "typical_volume": 2839955.95, "trend": 6.74165, "fair_value": 7.682281, "relative_strength": -26.310086, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.853222, "energy": 40.629007, "activity_lines": [ 6.056732, 6.141487, 6.265506, 6.404646 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.51, "volume": 4908836, "typical_volume": 2791995.85, "trend": 6.714617, "fair_value": 7.686723, "relative_strength": -9.650547, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 9.891142, "energy": 9.643526, "activity_lines": [ 6.519129, 6.380254, 6.378536, 6.454217 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }