{ "ticker": { "uuid": "54dc5f91-d6da-4196-9f0d-d2e982da6ee1", "symbol": "O10", "name": "Far East Orchard Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.027, "architecture_energy": 78.075, "architecture_maturity": 20.792, "architecture_confidence": 85.05, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.9, "rotation_up": 11.48, "upward_expansion": 18.35, "deceleration": 38.51, "rotation_down": 77.7, "downward_expansion": 96.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.080667, 1.097818, 1.138048, 1.154917 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 1.08, "trend_reference": 1.180198, "distance_from_trend": -0.084899, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.022962, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.055758, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.980306, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.129032, "excess_performance": -0.283867, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.084899, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021429, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.055758, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.179425, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.239803, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.209997, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.129032, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.02121, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 454200, "relative_activity": 1.032672, "balance": 1.02121, "dry_up": 0.790305, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035613, "annualized_volatility": 0.18219, "from_high_reference": -0.186249, "from_low_reference": 0.028571 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.180198, "fair_value_reference": 1.022962, "structural_low": 1.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.013877, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.111111, "worst_return": -0.039206, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.000188, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.005887, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.22559, "worst_return": -0.020679, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.04, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.016863, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.266786, "worst_return": -0.009346, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019607, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020202, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.227723, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.084615, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": 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"2026-07-24", "close": 1.08, "volume": 68500, "typical_volume": 418845.0, "trend": 1.188625, "fair_value": 1.021123, "relative_strength": -23.494961, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.09186, "energy": 85.702084, "activity_lines": [ 1.101333, 1.122, 1.156231, 1.169899 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.06, "volume": 526600, "typical_volume": 433675.0, "trend": 1.183594, "fair_value": 1.02195, "relative_strength": -24.951166, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.160717, "energy": 87.053513, "activity_lines": [ 1.086, 1.106727, 1.145966, 1.1616 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.08, "volume": 454200, "typical_volume": 439830.0, "trend": 1.180198, "fair_value": 1.022962, "relative_strength": -23.980306, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.02674, "energy": 78.074658, "activity_lines": [ 1.080667, 1.097818, 1.138048, 1.154917 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }