{ "ticker": { "uuid": "54dcb5a5-c11a-4209-a04c-38ccc75b9971", "symbol": "000025", "name": "Shenzhen Tellus Holding Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.438, "architecture_energy": 24.187, "architecture_maturity": 93.241, "architecture_confidence": 82.414, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.9, "rotation_up": 26.05, "upward_expansion": 14.63, "deceleration": 46.92, "rotation_down": 34.18, "downward_expansion": 64.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.559465, 14.401604, 14.797924, 15.280774 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.95, "trend_reference": 16.058886, "distance_from_trend": -0.069051, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.278123, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.081589, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.106956, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.169906, "excess_performance": -0.177305, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.069051, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075978, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.081589, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054872, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.15107, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113501, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.169906, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.187313, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 52637026, "relative_activity": 2.302625, "balance": 1.187313, "dry_up": 1.716846, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077634, "annualized_volatility": 0.263968, "from_high_reference": -0.29281, "from_low_reference": 0.180875 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.058886, "fair_value_reference": 16.278123, "structural_low": 12.6601, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.003722, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.020731, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 1.137097, "worst_return": -0.219034, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.042607, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.050323, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.754123, "worst_return": -0.095848, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.067718, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.069571, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.581933, "worst_return": -0.151494, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.565864, "energy": 78.760389, "activity_lines": [ 13.739005, 14.307963, 14.958827, 15.564665 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.14, "volume": 28267752, "typical_volume": 20107564.65, "trend": 16.226219, "fair_value": 16.30297, "relative_strength": -17.781366, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.378447, "energy": 67.690645, "activity_lines": [ 13.7659, 14.210752, 14.831558, 15.421985 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.23, "volume": 48899139, "typical_volume": 21334554.75, "trend": 16.142552, "fair_value": 16.28839, "relative_strength": -9.5614, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.017059, "energy": 42.510854, "activity_lines": [ 14.238128, 14.334814, 14.82386, 15.357712 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.95, "volume": 52637026, "typical_volume": 22859577.95, "trend": 16.058886, "fair_value": 16.278123, "relative_strength": -15.106956, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.438242, "energy": 24.187429, "activity_lines": [ 14.559465, 14.401604, 14.797924, 15.280774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }