{ "ticker": { "uuid": "54df9258-4243-468e-af71-7f7c38611db3", "symbol": "STXE", "name": "STRIVE EMERGING MARKETS EX-CHINA ETF", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 22.485, "architecture_energy": 20.212, "architecture_maturity": 66.393, "architecture_confidence": 90.726, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.09, "rotation_up": 17.86, "upward_expansion": 51.19, "deceleration": 93.9, "rotation_down": 37.15, "downward_expansion": 19.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.446487, 48.611965, 48.587336, 47.063352 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 48.0253, "trend_reference": 44.992395, "distance_from_trend": 0.067409, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.389393, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.529985, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 7.102257, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.176775, "excess_performance": 0.051151, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.067409, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.117526, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.529985, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.156104, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.071023, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.177626, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.176775, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.114395, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33884, "relative_activity": 0.642751, "balance": 1.114395, "dry_up": 0.909002, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080142, "annualized_volatility": 0.344779, "from_high_reference": -0.130142, "from_low_reference": 0.592606 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.992395, "fair_value_reference": 31.389393, "structural_low": 37.38, "invalidation": 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0.112264, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.098071, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.112264, "worst_return": 0.112264, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033198, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015806, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021871, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.020299, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.033375, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01148, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.309239, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.180406, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.036375, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030144, "active": true } ], 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"typical_volume": 54587.75, "trend": 43.543125, "fair_value": 30.818415, "relative_strength": 17.022567, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.989948, "energy": 49.450274, "activity_lines": [ 50.999013, 50.614654, 48.270304, 46.289494 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 46.8994, "volume": 69106, "typical_volume": 56015.55, "trend": 43.946679, "fair_value": 30.957946, "relative_strength": 10.31692, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.459654, "energy": 27.31726, "activity_lines": [ 49.486508, 50.028455, 48.366464, 46.506028 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.62, "volume": 35047, "typical_volume": 54326.35, "trend": 44.314018, "fair_value": 31.094343, "relative_strength": 9.77765, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.410605, "energy": 22.75148, "activity_lines": [ 48.150547, 49.437805, 48.421451, 46.6785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.9039, "volume": 53643, "typical_volume": 53377.25, "trend": 44.649985, "fair_value": 31.237303, "relative_strength": 8.744986, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.025614, "energy": 21.121733, "activity_lines": [ 47.4467, 48.909655, 48.470124, 46.84559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.0253, "volume": 33884, "typical_volume": 52717.15, "trend": 44.992395, "fair_value": 31.389393, "relative_strength": 7.102257, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.485149, "energy": 20.212394, "activity_lines": [ 47.446487, 48.611965, 48.587336, 47.063352 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }