{ "ticker": { "uuid": "54e0152d-9dd2-4df8-a447-f5a3b131ecab", "symbol": "603218", "name": "Riyue Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.568, "architecture_energy": 62.284, "architecture_maturity": 81.526, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 29.23, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.26, "rotation_down": 52.68, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.773637, 9.815041, 10.712278, 11.577827 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.03, "trend_reference": 12.534671, "distance_from_trend": -0.199819, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.23154, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.179989, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.119033, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.278936, "excess_performance": -0.235732, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.199819, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082896, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.179989, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.158784, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.22119, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092597, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.278936, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.419936, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 46488872, "relative_activity": 0.954334, "balance": 0.419936, "dry_up": 0.964848, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073766, "annualized_volatility": 0.436599, "from_high_reference": -0.413107, "from_low_reference": 0.123441 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.534671, "fair_value_reference": 12.23154, "structural_low": 8.927929, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.003011, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.006049, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.425651, "worst_return": -0.29812, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.097835, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.048331, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.498332, "worst_return": -0.300761, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.042191, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.012307, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.237544, "worst_return": -0.350838, "sufficient": true }, { 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.106449, "energy": 91.792495, "activity_lines": [ 9.5038, 10.128684, 11.378185, 12.134774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.37, "volume": 53264338, "typical_volume": 62519534.9, "trend": 12.744337, "fair_value": 12.324089, "relative_strength": -25.597776, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.449759, "energy": 85.550231, "activity_lines": [ 9.375125, 9.881591, 11.08228, 11.909849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.21, "volume": 47844695, "typical_volume": 57295133.95, "trend": 12.642004, "fair_value": 12.276846, "relative_strength": -18.913606, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.605266, "energy": 66.829494, "activity_lines": [ 9.622451, 9.845952, 10.890517, 11.746344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.03, "volume": 46488872, "typical_volume": 48713430.7, "trend": 12.534671, "fair_value": 12.23154, "relative_strength": -22.119033, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.568394, "energy": 62.2836, "activity_lines": [ 9.773637, 9.815041, 10.712278, 11.577827 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }