{ "ticker": { "uuid": "54e135e7-16f3-4f19-abbd-058e14ee90b8", "symbol": "KEY", "name": "KeyCorp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 87.876, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 44.893, "architecture_energy": 32.29, "architecture_maturity": 69.805, "architecture_confidence": 51.542, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.14, "rotation_up": 39.77, "upward_expansion": 65.78, "deceleration": 64.87, "rotation_down": 25.23, "downward_expansion": 15.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.824, 22.900545, 22.418741, 21.946486 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 22.73, "trend_reference": 21.487843, "distance_from_trend": 0.057807, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.050055, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.416194, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.652214, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.001299, "excess_performance": -0.126924, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.057807, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060157, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.416194, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016727, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.006522, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0148, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.001299, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.158476, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 40843825, "relative_activity": 0.719735, "balance": 1.158476, "dry_up": 0.925867, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043351, "annualized_volatility": 0.22916, "from_high_reference": -0.055475, "from_low_reference": 0.423181 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.487843, "fair_value_reference": 16.050055, "structural_low": 18.545499, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.024691, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.012819, "regime_survival": 0.703704, "best_return": 0.195142, "worst_return": -0.239464, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.023691, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.026658, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.204249, "worst_return": -0.532314, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.094697, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.026452, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.27332, "worst_return": -0.386149, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.129557, "energy": 78.682413, "activity_lines": [ 23.082667, 22.56403, 21.885845, 21.542971 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.55, "volume": 50095860, "typical_volume": 62103012.4, "trend": 21.29319, "fair_value": 15.812283, "relative_strength": 9.038988, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.625194, "energy": 77.752113, "activity_lines": [ 23.274667, 22.821482, 22.106056, 21.694974 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.65, "volume": 65916562, "typical_volume": 61734076.55, "trend": 21.355564, "fair_value": 15.888459, "relative_strength": 5.324735, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.856078, "energy": 51.687301, "activity_lines": [ 23.11, 22.87608, 22.225256, 21.78251 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.59, "volume": 53309681, "typical_volume": 59557041.2, "trend": 21.422802, "fair_value": 15.96782, "relative_strength": 3.721408, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.518432, "energy": 42.733717, "activity_lines": [ 22.921333, 22.886828, 22.324549, 21.862151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.73, "volume": 40843825, "typical_volume": 56748385.45, "trend": 21.487843, "fair_value": 16.050055, "relative_strength": 0.652214, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.892525, "energy": 32.28975, "activity_lines": [ 22.824, 22.900545, 22.418741, 21.946486 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }