{ "ticker": { "uuid": "54eecf32-9966-41f6-a6db-05ebdae946b9", "symbol": "SMIZ", "name": "ZACKS TR SMALL/MID CAP ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 74.417, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 40.355, "architecture_energy": 21.443, "architecture_maturity": 59.94, "architecture_confidence": 78.489, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.32, "rotation_up": 25.59, "upward_expansion": 55.49, "deceleration": 91.0, "rotation_down": 27.07, "downward_expansion": 19.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.646413, 42.883944, 42.559754, 41.699513 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 43.1899, "trend_reference": 40.708937, "distance_from_trend": 0.060944, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.599606, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.285429, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.433717, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.087899, "excess_performance": -0.037726, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.060944, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048341, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.285429, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00199, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.014337, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033904, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.087899, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.553265, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 172665, "relative_activity": 1.079662, "balance": 0.553265, "dry_up": 1.001065, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035988, "annualized_volatility": 0.151997, "from_high_reference": -0.035358, "from_low_reference": 0.252288 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.708937, "fair_value_reference": 33.599606, "structural_low": 35.6514, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.057135, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.021395, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.057135, "worst_return": 0.057135, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.11264, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.063447, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.11264, "worst_return": 0.11264, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.179936, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.042058, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.179936, "worst_return": 0.179936, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05352, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.035557, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049904, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002453, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.017704, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028179, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { 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2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.572322, "energy": 32.202326, "activity_lines": [ 42.843193, 42.999296, 42.311819, 41.426389 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.0062, "volume": 128400, "typical_volume": 158043.1, "trend": 40.55694, "fair_value": 33.534807, "relative_strength": -0.733807, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.012275, "energy": 22.576504, "activity_lines": [ 42.488887, 42.83334, 42.391482, 41.529645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.1899, "volume": 172665, "typical_volume": 159925.0, "trend": 40.708937, "fair_value": 33.599606, "relative_strength": -1.433717, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.354939, "energy": 21.442509, "activity_lines": [ 42.646413, 42.883944, 42.559754, 41.699513 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }