{ "ticker": { "uuid": "54f748cd-ccc5-412b-923a-537450e4ecf9", "symbol": "BMRC", "name": "Bank of Marin Bancorp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 80.985, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.795, "architecture_energy": 50.379, "architecture_maturity": 16.111, "architecture_confidence": 76.008, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.68, "rotation_up": 64.51, "upward_expansion": 83.7, "deceleration": 50.41, "rotation_down": 15.39, "downward_expansion": 8.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.572989, 28.181187, 27.32546, 26.806871 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 28.37, "trend_reference": 26.356792, "distance_from_trend": 0.076383, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.090746, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.34514, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.207578, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.04533, "excess_performance": -0.142123, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.076383, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020185, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.34514, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051812, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032076, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073313, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.04533, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.37117, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 708573, "relative_activity": 1.128872, "balance": 2.37117, "dry_up": 1.286132, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058675, "annualized_volatility": 0.210746, "from_high_reference": -0.074457, "from_low_reference": 0.327479 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.356792, "fair_value_reference": 21.090746, "structural_low": 23.12821, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.024796, "positive_rate": 0.35, "directional_follow_through": 0.35, "median_excess_return": -0.00348, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.17029, "worst_return": -0.126556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.07561, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.039997, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.365132, "worst_return": -0.206696, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.120361, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.091977, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.31489, "worst_return": -0.512177, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 28.670518, "volume": 908262, "typical_volume": 586092.2, "trend": 26.061725, "fair_value": 20.90053, "relative_strength": 2.008968, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.071491, "energy": 73.77573, "activity_lines": [ 28.138341, 27.37626, 26.656978, 26.333756 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.521812, "volume": 628431, "typical_volume": 593648.3, "trend": 26.142642, "fair_value": 20.966323, "relative_strength": 3.067715, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.934512, "energy": 70.639383, "activity_lines": [ 28.402956, 27.68532, 26.894199, 26.492471 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.908447, "volume": 983863, "typical_volume": 622878.6, "trend": 26.262617, "fair_value": 21.030458, "relative_strength": 3.729764, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.754456, "energy": 65.624409, "activity_lines": [ 28.615662, 28.00828, 27.147935, 26.67091 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.37, "volume": 708573, "typical_volume": 627682.35, "trend": 26.356792, "fair_value": 21.090746, "relative_strength": -3.207578, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.795097, "energy": 50.379178, "activity_lines": [ 28.572989, 28.181187, 27.32546, 26.806871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }