{ "ticker": { "uuid": "54f79ac1-6ceb-4f3d-bcc8-6d16692bd3c5", "symbol": "HRL-F75", "name": "Harel Index Funds Ltd. - Harel Sal (4D) S&P Financial", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.816, "architecture_energy": 63.102, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 58.019, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.91, "rotation_up": 27.99, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 44.38, "downward_expansion": 65.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.253333, 23.664727, 569.926952, 981.715613 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 24.53, "trend_reference": 1467.663667, "distance_from_trend": -0.983286, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2097.890449, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.988307, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.853488, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989449, "excess_performance": -1.01835, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.983286, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.351853, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.988307, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.944737, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.988535, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.652305, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.989449, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.616381, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8120, "relative_activity": 0.359844, "balance": 1.616381, "dry_up": 0.747429, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 6.792656, "annualized_volatility": 6.321388, "from_high_reference": -0.99027, "from_low_reference": 0.179894 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1467.663667, "fair_value_reference": 2097.890449, "structural_low": 20.79, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.002449, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.039905, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.069996, "worst_return": -0.988896, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.027832, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.102569, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.053928, "worst_return": -0.074245, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.040816, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.306267, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.024595, "worst_return": -0.125, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"fair_value": 2097.890449, "relative_strength": -98.853488, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.815791, "energy": 63.102106, "activity_lines": [ 24.253333, 23.664727, 569.926952, 981.715613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }