{ "ticker": { "uuid": "54fac832-495f-4e50-a07f-8dc7532a6ddc", "symbol": "IUCDN", "name": "iShares V Public Limited Company - iShares S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Sector UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 61.005, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.9, "architecture_energy": 19.51, "architecture_maturity": 14.571, "architecture_confidence": 79.913, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.44, "rotation_up": 38.44, "upward_expansion": 49.01, "deceleration": 72.91, "rotation_down": 27.42, "downward_expansion": 29.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 290.129343, 290.344552, 290.827052, 289.173036 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 296.920013, "trend_reference": 288.785669, "distance_from_trend": 0.028167, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 257.646283, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.152433, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.015923, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.000168, "excess_performance": 0.0096, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028167, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013745, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.152433, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019958, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.020159, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064153, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.000168, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.896948, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8093, "relative_activity": 0.228853, "balance": 0.896948, "dry_up": 0.623323, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02585, "annualized_volatility": 0.210098, "from_high_reference": -0.059844, "from_low_reference": 0.099745 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 288.785669, "fair_value_reference": 257.646283, "structural_low": 269.98999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.003857, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.028455, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.077431, "worst_return": -0.053911, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.060021, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.010221, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.110982, "worst_return": -0.069933, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.057424, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.038726, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.126464, "worst_return": -0.030074, 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"fair_value": 253.880449, "relative_strength": -4.046687, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.032827, "energy": 16.623347, "activity_lines": [ 291.204002, 292.584184, 289.614192, 289.198087 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 294.869995, "volume": 31305, "typical_volume": 32365.5, "trend": 290.728333, "fair_value": 254.685898, "relative_strength": -3.254486, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.413102, "energy": 13.533889, "activity_lines": [ 291.925334, 292.935273, 290.421954, 289.444108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 292.200012, "volume": 28153, "typical_volume": 33089.05, "trend": 290.297667, "fair_value": 255.460001, "relative_strength": -4.068005, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.428218, "energy": 9.562538, "activity_lines": [ 292.416671, 292.757275, 290.891859, 289.539055 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 275.130005, "volume": 18236, "typical_volume": 33988.95, "trend": 289.270001, "fair_value": 256.087052, "relative_strength": -8.978462, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.019333, "energy": 24.669783, "activity_lines": [ 287.150004, 289.446367, 289.678193, 288.560497 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 290.670013, "volume": 33689, "typical_volume": 35402.25, "trend": 288.825668, "fair_value": 256.852052, "relative_strength": -4.340802, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.751286, "energy": 13.731748, "activity_lines": [ 287.724007, 289.309096, 289.972289, 288.65082 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 296.920013, "volume": 8093, "typical_volume": 35363.3, "trend": 288.785669, "fair_value": 257.646283, "relative_strength": -2.015923, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.899942, "energy": 19.509953, "activity_lines": [ 290.129343, 290.344552, 290.827052, 289.173036 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }