{ "ticker": { "uuid": "54fe27c7-bfcd-4d28-a61d-17563ddd428f", "symbol": "CD1", "name": "CD Private Equity Fund I", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.87, "architecture_energy": 67.398, "architecture_maturity": 87.959, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.89, "rotation_up": 26.39, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 59.23, "rotation_down": 61.94, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.284129, 0.289468, 0.30904, 0.328808 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.28, "trend_reference": 0.358153, "distance_from_trend": -0.218212, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.418694, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.331254, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.432053, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.348837, "excess_performance": -0.412543, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.218212, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107728, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.331254, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.169509, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.314321, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.176075, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.348837, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.484962, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 221101, "relative_activity": 2.394957, "balance": 0.484962, "dry_up": 1.197787, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061772, "annualized_volatility": 0.326229, "from_high_reference": -0.431016, "from_low_reference": 0.059887 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.358153, "fair_value_reference": 0.418694, "structural_low": 0.264179, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.007526, "positive_rate": 0.392857, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.013255, "regime_survival": 0.821429, "best_return": 0.077651, "worst_return": -0.138889, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.008487, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.018925, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.148395, "worst_return": -0.230769, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.087913, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.045928, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.16648, "worst_return": -0.199116, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"volume": 38537, "typical_volume": 102715.3, "trend": 0.371346, "fair_value": 0.421577, "relative_strength": -28.745602, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.500205, "energy": 90.199887, "activity_lines": [ 0.290099, 0.301152, 0.324367, 0.344851 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.272985, "volume": 75018, "typical_volume": 100766.4, "trend": 0.366726, "fair_value": 0.420511, "relative_strength": -30.307691, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.129651, "energy": 92.235932, "activity_lines": [ 0.281736, 0.294052, 0.31765, 0.338505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.299403, "volume": 107660, "typical_volume": 92548.4, "trend": 0.362987, "fair_value": 0.419631, "relative_strength": -24.833811, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.390038, "energy": 77.111467, "activity_lines": [ 0.285313, 0.293155, 0.314053, 0.334162 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.28, "volume": 221101, "typical_volume": 92319.4, "trend": 0.358153, "fair_value": 0.418694, "relative_strength": -31.432053, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.870044, "energy": 67.397685, "activity_lines": [ 0.284129, 0.289468, 0.30904, 0.328808 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }