{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5508f03e-6fa1-4cfc-a518-1aee11515c01", "symbol": "S1BS34", "name": "Sibanye Stillwater Limited", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.495, "architecture_energy": 48.322, "architecture_maturity": 80.007, "architecture_confidence": 66.118, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.2, "rotation_up": 26.49, "upward_expansion": 19.27, "deceleration": 66.53, "rotation_down": 49.04, "downward_expansion": 71.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.466667, 23.298909, 25.540476, 27.911441 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 27.0, "trend_reference": 31.983151, "distance_from_trend": -0.155806, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.149641, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.409948, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.093682, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.355426, "excess_performance": -0.298377, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.155806, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106424, "read": "Falling" 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20.18, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.024463, "positive_rate": 0.44, "directional_follow_through": 0.56, "median_excess_return": -0.030182, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.226715, "worst_return": -0.254591, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.007587, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.032095, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.206173, "worst_return": -0.28674, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.026009, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.050849, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.045455, "worst_return": -0.323077, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 20.76, "volume": 141744, "typical_volume": 28433.0, "trend": 33.711262, "fair_value": 19.01414, "relative_strength": -36.764814, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.698299, "energy": 87.208785, "activity_lines": [ 22.238666, 23.982727, 26.89342, 29.750003 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.33, "volume": 62467, "typical_volume": 29828.95, "trend": 33.006363, "fair_value": 19.041018, "relative_strength": -34.703854, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.334366, "energy": 79.905303, "activity_lines": [ 21.694667, 23.186182, 26.165269, 28.951212 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.37, "volume": 71700, "typical_volume": 31579.8, "trend": 32.480076, "fair_value": 19.080707, "relative_strength": -32.740109, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.660165, "energy": 67.813718, "activity_lines": [ 21.790667, 22.752182, 25.607143, 28.264995 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.0, "volume": 71480, "typical_volume": 34440.3, "trend": 31.983151, "fair_value": 19.149641, "relative_strength": -16.093682, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.495023, "energy": 48.321972, "activity_lines": [ 23.466667, 23.298909, 25.540476, 27.911441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }