{ "ticker": { "uuid": "550bb834-70a5-4bd0-9a9f-0a08e92142ea", "symbol": "ABS2", "name": "PORR AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 67.164, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 16.672, "architecture_energy": 25.55, "architecture_maturity": 53.699, "architecture_confidence": 87.896, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.68, "rotation_up": 18.86, "upward_expansion": 49.97, "deceleration": 90.64, "rotation_down": 44.74, "downward_expansion": 27.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.156666, 39.851818, 39.679401, 38.978311 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 38.599998, "trend_reference": 37.916559, "distance_from_trend": 0.018025, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.351678, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.72694, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.977436, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.081026, "excess_performance": 0.016386, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.018025, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10978, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.72694, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.231555, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.049774, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.19364, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.081026, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.898148, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3302, "relative_activity": 0.78492, "balance": 0.898148, "dry_up": 0.950604, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076425, "annualized_volatility": 0.495419, "from_high_reference": -0.159957, "from_low_reference": 0.574351 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.916559, "fair_value_reference": 22.351678, "structural_low": 31.474545, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.033285, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.015754, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.131268, "worst_return": -0.056387, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.047233, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.028781, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.350712, "worst_return": -0.087025, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.089539, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.021545, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.269122, "worst_return": -0.164024, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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38.799999, "volume": 2051, "typical_volume": 4687.5, "trend": 37.013346, "fair_value": 21.656508, "relative_strength": 12.698558, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.552901, "energy": 69.414642, "activity_lines": [ 42.719999, 41.566363, 39.857778, 38.770334 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 39.150002, "volume": 6126, "typical_volume": 4657.55, "trend": 37.303247, "fair_value": 21.833919, "relative_strength": 14.184127, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.05388, "energy": 37.553837, "activity_lines": [ 41.433333, 41.34, 39.909637, 38.908183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.950001, "volume": 3461, "typical_volume": 4526.6, "trend": 37.538554, "fair_value": 22.004673, "relative_strength": 9.000008, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.774296, "energy": 18.261362, "activity_lines": [ 39.893334, 40.896364, 39.842859, 38.949909 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.1, "volume": 3107, "typical_volume": 4254.9, "trend": 37.721205, "fair_value": 22.172046, "relative_strength": 3.979644, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.977121, "energy": 23.750536, "activity_lines": [ 38.526667, 40.262727, 39.693713, 38.921615 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.599998, "volume": 3302, "typical_volume": 4206.8, "trend": 37.916559, "fair_value": 22.351678, "relative_strength": 4.977436, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.67176, "energy": 25.549559, "activity_lines": [ 38.156666, 39.851818, 39.679401, 38.978311 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }