{ "ticker": { "uuid": "550cc63d-9193-44e9-ad56-109de78fde3c", "symbol": "252710", "name": "Mirae Asset Tiger 200 Futures Inverse 2X ETF", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.158, "architecture_energy": 41.919, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 79.353, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.64, "rotation_up": 27.98, "upward_expansion": 25.09, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 32.97, "downward_expansion": 61.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 100.266667, 93.963636, 106.590476, 144.032258 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 104.0, "trend_reference": 207.733333, "distance_from_trend": -0.499358, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1737.198718, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.940134, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -87.273528, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.743842, "excess_performance": -0.973671, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.499358, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.502634, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.940134, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006264, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.872735, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063527, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.743842, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.962506, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 867878945, "relative_activity": 2.183063, "balance": 0.962506, "dry_up": 1.902938, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.260355, "annualized_volatility": 1.019013, "from_high_reference": -0.929492, "from_low_reference": 0.6 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 207.733333, "fair_value_reference": 1737.198718, "structural_low": 65.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.060859, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.078624, "regime_survival": 0.916667, "best_return": 0.506849, "worst_return": -0.502793, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.14576, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.209463, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.227154, "worst_return": -0.725352, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.089015, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.108517, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.140909, "worst_return": -0.724539, "sufficient": true }, { 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"down", "direction": -51.808232, "energy": 55.519462, "activity_lines": [ 98.866667, 92.018182, 116.995238, 161.501075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 87.0, "volume": 967130252, "typical_volume": 363548573.9, "trend": 222.066667, "fair_value": 1753.711538, "relative_strength": -90.471187, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.166634, "energy": 49.23969, "activity_lines": [ 97.2, 91.236364, 110.47619, 151.649462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 104.0, "volume": 867878945, "typical_volume": 397551113.15, "trend": 207.733333, "fair_value": 1737.198718, "relative_strength": -87.273528, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.158361, "energy": 41.918607, "activity_lines": [ 100.266667, 93.963636, 106.590476, 144.032258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }