{ "ticker": { "uuid": "550f836b-0c42-4f00-9e4f-08acd13876de", "symbol": "MUS", "name": "HSBC MSCI USA QUALITY UCITS ETF", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.931, "architecture_energy": 74.078, "architecture_maturity": 89.92, "architecture_confidence": 76.608, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.34, "rotation_up": 60.8, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 68.66, "rotation_down": 29.53, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 61.802235, 61.559623, 60.461375, 59.221278 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 62.790001, "trend_reference": 57.790897, "distance_from_trend": 0.086503, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 50.061161, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.254266, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.47296, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.138681, "excess_performance": 0.085369, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086503, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039929, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.254266, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052159, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.04473, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020192, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.138681, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.852624, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2568, "relative_activity": 2.352402, "balance": 0.852624, "dry_up": 2.729813, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012141, "annualized_volatility": 0.084819, "from_high_reference": -0.007703, "from_low_reference": 0.224004 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 57.790897, "fair_value_reference": 50.061161, "structural_low": 52.867395, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.016888, "positive_rate": 0.657895, "directional_follow_through": 0.657895, "median_excess_return": 0.00558, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.06725, "worst_return": -0.10373, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.02544, "positive_rate": 0.785714, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": 0.01427, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.125805, "worst_return": -0.18715, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.051498, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.055474, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.201923, "worst_return": -0.086774, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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60.675, 59.963636, 58.264145, 57.406297 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 61.649445, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 525.3, "trend": 56.677022, "fair_value": 49.311898, "relative_strength": 6.23003, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.796054, "energy": 94.478303, "activity_lines": [ 61.051815, 60.402717, 58.699819, 57.741562 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 61.899055, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 540.2, "trend": 56.916665, "fair_value": 49.467058, "relative_strength": 8.497814, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.100178, "energy": 94.381152, "activity_lines": [ 61.390203, 60.804646, 59.126191, 58.078467 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 61.624485, "volume": 143, "typical_volume": 545.2, "trend": 57.145495, "fair_value": 49.615975, "relative_strength": 7.733123, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.812924, "energy": 80.393355, "activity_lines": [ 61.540465, 61.066853, 59.496189, 58.382197 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 61.185162, "volume": 4274, "typical_volume": 758.8, "trend": 57.356693, "fair_value": 49.758121, "relative_strength": 6.278838, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.449823, "energy": 82.567153, "activity_lines": [ 61.478987, 61.180828, 59.796094, 58.642821 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 61.095001, "volume": 4935, "typical_volume": 979.4, "trend": 57.56223, "fair_value": 49.90305, "relative_strength": 4.273607, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.40424, "energy": 66.36317, "activity_lines": [ 61.369111, 61.235044, 60.062489, 58.884002 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 62.790001, "volume": 2568, "typical_volume": 1091.65, "trend": 57.790897, "fair_value": 50.061161, "relative_strength": 4.47296, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.930575, "energy": 74.077834, "activity_lines": [ 61.802235, 61.559623, 60.461375, 59.221278 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }