{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5510b665-2942-412f-8f5e-6c4aa78cd160", "symbol": "SDIV", "name": "Global X SuperDividend UCITS ETF USD Dis", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.285, "architecture_energy": 18.929, "architecture_maturity": 18.642, "architecture_confidence": 66.675, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.61, "rotation_up": 29.65, "upward_expansion": 16.98, "deceleration": 44.9, "rotation_down": 24.35, "downward_expansion": 53.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.055456, 10.005554, 10.061055, 10.093399 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 10.093, "trend_reference": 10.127055, "distance_from_trend": -0.003363, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.251894, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.223113, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.496558, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.019138, "excess_performance": -0.070374, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003363, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018252, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.223113, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091245, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.044966, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104026, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.019138, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.816124, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 216179, "relative_activity": 0.936321, "balance": 0.816124, "dry_up": 0.884133, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023941, "annualized_volatility": 0.116455, "from_high_reference": -0.067142, "from_low_reference": 0.148165 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.127055, "fair_value_reference": 8.251894, "structural_low": 9.550228, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.012562, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.001278, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.068424, "worst_return": -0.071456, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.016818, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.003241, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.090737, "worst_return": 0.0062, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.102822, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.022174, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.179976, "worst_return": 0.025872, 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"relative_strength": -3.349625, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.671841, "energy": 8.921035, "activity_lines": [ 10.008998, 9.981224, 10.070253, 10.100377 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.014, "volume": 173930, "typical_volume": 238191.2, "trend": 10.115327, "fair_value": 8.232152, "relative_strength": -5.043535, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.694654, "energy": 18.015569, "activity_lines": [ 10.024706, 9.985087, 10.062067, 10.09484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.093, "volume": 216179, "typical_volume": 230881.4, "trend": 10.127055, "fair_value": 8.251894, "relative_strength": -4.496558, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.285407, "energy": 18.928625, "activity_lines": [ 10.055456, 10.005554, 10.061055, 10.093399 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }