{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5513a345-d36b-4151-91dd-a995a8a82a56", "symbol": "XMMS", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Emerging Markets UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 74.874, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 9.75, "architecture_energy": 19.535, "architecture_maturity": 64.502, "architecture_confidence": 84.386, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.17, "rotation_up": 16.51, "upward_expansion": 45.53, "deceleration": 87.98, "rotation_down": 40.68, "downward_expansion": 28.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 6687.733333, 6808.954545, 6817.669048, 6674.772043 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6768.0, "trend_reference": 6484.183333, "distance_from_trend": 0.043771, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4947.58436, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.36794, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.845434, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.115727, "excess_performance": 0.064492, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.043771, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069435, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.36794, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094234, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.028454, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14127, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.115727, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.530235, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 131228, "relative_activity": 1.89922, "balance": 0.530235, "dry_up": 2.321807, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045459, "annualized_volatility": 0.23419, "from_high_reference": -0.092994, "from_low_reference": 0.355226 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6484.183333, "fair_value_reference": 4947.58436, "structural_low": 5659.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.011563, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.009671, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.132568, "worst_return": -0.027868, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.051115, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.007322, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.233038, "worst_return": -0.035435, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.022592, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.026657, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.262537, "worst_return": -0.034595, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024942, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00071, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.099684, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.039398, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.139834, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-23", 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30.404796, "energy": 24.452634, "activity_lines": [ 6766.1, 6894.472727, 6805.647619, 6642.184946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6615.0, "volume": 211024, "typical_volume": 66122.45, "trend": 6454.133333, "fair_value": 4929.677309, "relative_strength": 1.054011, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.663362, "energy": 22.562294, "activity_lines": [ 6685.666667, 6836.009091, 6805.980952, 6654.522581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6768.0, "volume": 131228, "typical_volume": 69095.75, "trend": 6484.183333, "fair_value": 4947.58436, "relative_strength": 2.845434, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.750245, "energy": 19.534725, "activity_lines": [ 6687.733333, 6808.954545, 6817.669048, 6674.772043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }