{ "ticker": { "uuid": "551605f5-d956-4db6-9bdd-d6cb916992af", "symbol": "CPT", "name": "CPT Drives and Power Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 60.737, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -29.537, "architecture_energy": 37.458, "architecture_maturity": 11.554, "architecture_confidence": 70.333, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.7, "rotation_up": 30.81, "upward_expansion": 15.79, "deceleration": 47.95, "rotation_down": 44.31, "downward_expansion": 55.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.993333, 0.996909, 1.027381, 1.038275 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.0, "trend_reference": 1.034599, "distance_from_trend": -0.033442, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.855935, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.168313, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.9392, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.057916, "excess_performance": -0.134409, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.033442, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011202, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.168313, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.139802, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.139392, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079676, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.057916, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.661108, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 774000, "relative_activity": 0.412123, "balance": 0.661108, "dry_up": 0.35905, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049231, "annualized_volatility": 0.331484, "from_high_reference": -0.242424, "from_low_reference": 0.282722 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.034599, "fair_value_reference": 0.855935, "structural_low": 0.886786, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.009159, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.216867, "worst_return": -0.139785, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.00685, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.014305, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.180723, "worst_return": -0.120482, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.003376, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.17659, "worst_return": -0.13253, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.283705, "energy": 32.570702, "activity_lines": [ 0.998667, 1.007818, 1.049164, 1.046664 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.98, "volume": 550700, "typical_volume": 1855090.0, "trend": 1.033231, "fair_value": 0.851381, "relative_strength": -17.78307, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.41246, "energy": 39.505361, "activity_lines": [ 0.992, 1.001455, 1.040952, 1.043241 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.99, "volume": 219500, "typical_volume": 1850300.0, "trend": 1.033748, "fair_value": 0.853743, "relative_strength": -15.651307, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.891853, "energy": 32.317166, "activity_lines": [ 0.990667, 0.998364, 1.033667, 1.040452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.0, "volume": 774000, "typical_volume": 1878080.0, "trend": 1.034599, "fair_value": 0.855935, "relative_strength": -13.9392, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.536558, "energy": 37.458167, "activity_lines": [ 0.993333, 0.996909, 1.027381, 1.038275 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }