{ "ticker": { "uuid": "551607c8-5412-48dc-9210-e63e53f73f31", "symbol": "V1IP34", "name": "Vipshop Holdings Limited", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 78.275, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 28.23, "architecture_energy": 44.247, "architecture_maturity": 34.568, "architecture_confidence": 54.854, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.65, "rotation_up": 54.96, "upward_expansion": 38.14, "deceleration": 47.31, "rotation_down": 14.0, "downward_expansion": 46.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.425333, 36.264, 35.978616, 36.800233 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 38.959999, "trend_reference": 38.685265, "distance_from_trend": 0.007102, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 39.326401, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.009317, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.263097, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.111547, "excess_performance": -0.054499, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007102, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097104, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.009317, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089486, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.122631, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.187933, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.111547, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 31.307692, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 120, "relative_activity": 0.320684, "balance": 31.307692, "dry_up": 2.095136, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025391, "annualized_volatility": 0.263349, "from_high_reference": -0.260163, "from_low_reference": 0.180606 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.685265, "fair_value_reference": 39.326401, "structural_low": 33.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.026591, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.00908, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.158533, "worst_return": -0.072786, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.122155, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.070238, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.231898, "worst_return": -0.023644, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.091954, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.07717, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.308637, "worst_return": -0.005432, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.057383, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006776, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.103927, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.022605, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.070896, 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.601439, "energy": 65.253819, "activity_lines": [ 34.450667, 34.778, 35.522916, 37.061236 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.439999, "volume": 14, "typical_volume": 230.45, "trend": 39.22648, "fair_value": 39.330323, "relative_strength": -19.594596, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.909001, "energy": 49.677874, "activity_lines": [ 35.158666, 35.023091, 35.516485, 36.84898 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.439999, "volume": 3002, "typical_volume": 368.95, "trend": 38.929095, "fair_value": 39.326695, "relative_strength": -16.53634, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.179, "energy": 19.70031, "activity_lines": [ 36.386666, 35.618727, 35.719704, 36.798239 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.959999, "volume": 120, "typical_volume": 374.2, "trend": 38.685265, "fair_value": 39.326401, "relative_strength": -12.263097, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": 28.229792, "energy": 44.246689, "activity_lines": [ 37.425333, 36.264, 35.978616, 36.800233 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }