{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "551d497c-c3ff-4101-8e55-340b180f094f",
    "symbol": "MELG",
    "name": "Melhus Sparebank",
    "exchange": "OSL",
    "country": "NO",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 89.937,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_down",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down",
    "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": 5.021,
    "architecture_energy": 9.392,
    "architecture_maturity": 21.3,
    "architecture_confidence": 48.176,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 64.09,
        "rotation_up": 30.61,
        "upward_expansion": 20.97,
        "deceleration": 64.99,
        "rotation_down": 29.18,
        "downward_expansion": 29.97
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        186.458668,
        185.985456,
        187.412667,
        187.699665
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.0
    },
    "latest_close": 190.0,
    "trend_reference": 187.104118,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.015477,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 152.743077,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.243919,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -5.245944,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.061119,
    "excess_performance": -0.063875,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.015477,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.015708,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.243919,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.066174,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.052459,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.026084,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.061119,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.665352,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 969,
      "relative_activity": 0.522302,
      "balance": 0.665352,
      "dry_up": 0.395095,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.022996,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.167651,
      "from_high_reference": -0.035435,
      "from_low_reference": 0.219206
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 187.104118,
      "fair_value_reference": 152.743077,
      "structural_low": 176.406132,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.012479,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -2.2e-05,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.016043,
        "worst_return": 0.008916,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": 0.178731,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.150575,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.178731,
        "worst_return": 0.178731,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": 0.162763,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.081148,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.162763,
        "worst_return": 0.162763,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 0,
        "median_return": null,
        "positive_rate": null,
        "directional_follow_through": null,
        "median_excess_return": null,
        "regime_survival": null,
        "best_return": null,
        "worst_return": null,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-01-12",
        "end": "2024-04-26",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.004593,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-05-03",
        "end": "2024-07-26",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.026728,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-08-02",
        "end": "2024-09-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.007712,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-10-04",
        "end": "2024-10-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.004,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-18",
        "end": "2025-07-25",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.172871,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-08-01",
        "end": "2025-09-12",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.018593,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-09-19",
        "end": "2025-09-26",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.002134,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-10-03",
        "end": "2025-10-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.026513,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-10-24",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.043732,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2026-01-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.020729,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-02-06",
        "end": "2026-02-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.05222,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-02-20",
        "end": "2026-06-05",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.020284,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
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      {
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        "return": 0.016043,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 1455.6,
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        "trend": 178.93525,
        "fair_value": 146.766123,
        "relative_strength": -5.789802,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 53.817816,
        "energy": 32.063629,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 3076.55,
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        "fair_value": 147.182517,
        "relative_strength": -5.793928,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "energy": 36.824119,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 193.399994,
        "volume": 1380,
        "typical_volume": 3118.4,
        "trend": 181.175525,
        "fair_value": 147.623155,
        "relative_strength": -2.637495,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 61.810103,
        "energy": 39.697601,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 189.880005,
        "volume": 2717,
        "typical_volume": 3235.45,
        "trend": 182.061377,
        "fair_value": 148.03105,
        "relative_strength": -6.527765,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 54.986593,
        "energy": 36.564794,
        "activity_lines": [
          191.212,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 188.039993,
        "volume": 334,
        "typical_volume": 3226.85,
        "trend": 182.994765,
        "fair_value": 148.427149,
        "relative_strength": -8.387958,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 42.016439,
        "energy": 28.16645,
        "activity_lines": [
          190.263997,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 196.979996,
        "volume": 520,
        "typical_volume": 3146.7,
        "trend": 184.2106,
        "fair_value": 148.880556,
        "relative_strength": -1.900485,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 73.221811,
        "energy": 48.58712,
        "activity_lines": [
          192.366664,
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          189.816876,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 188.020004,
        "volume": 644,
        "typical_volume": 3092.35,
        "trend": 185.096663,
        "fair_value": 149.276527,
        "relative_strength": -6.324419,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 46.285986,
        "energy": 24.812556,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 186.0,
        "volume": 161,
        "typical_volume": 2829.5,
        "trend": 185.700764,
        "fair_value": 149.65955,
        "relative_strength": -6.768398,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 21.05887,
        "energy": 10.347092,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 185.0,
        "volume": 1143,
        "typical_volume": 2816.9,
        "trend": 186.299526,
        "fair_value": 150.046342,
        "relative_strength": -5.027019,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 2.415721,
        "energy": 6.075751,
        "activity_lines": [
          187.670666,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 185.0,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 2674.2,
        "trend": 186.493916,
        "fair_value": 150.428044,
        "relative_strength": -2.416625,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -20.454974,
        "energy": 24.348554,
        "activity_lines": [
          186.401334,
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          188.989683,
          188.023024
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 186.0,
        "volume": 1218,
        "typical_volume": 2606.45,
        "trend": 186.628945,
        "fair_value": 150.811067,
        "relative_strength": -3.945655,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -17.081357,
        "energy": 32.572824,
        "activity_lines": [
          185.668,
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          187.991158
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 187.0,
        "volume": 40,
        "typical_volume": 2533.55,
        "trend": 186.858895,
        "fair_value": 151.205589,
        "relative_strength": -2.75301,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -18.206096,
        "energy": 36.230005,
        "activity_lines": [
          186.0,
          187.278182,
          188.558714,
          188.015097
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 182.5,
        "volume": 831,
        "typical_volume": 2481.45,
        "trend": 186.876635,
        "fair_value": 151.566176,
        "relative_strength": -6.167128,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -32.884588,
        "energy": 45.273558,
        "activity_lines": [
          184.9,
          186.181454,
          187.955064,
          187.733878
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 184.960007,
        "volume": 1016,
        "typical_volume": 2426.6,
        "trend": 186.848841,
        "fair_value": 151.937442,
        "relative_strength": -7.145244,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -26.790066,
        "energy": 33.489427,
        "activity_lines": [
          184.853336,
          185.730183,
          187.605208,
          187.610225
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 185.0,
        "volume": 116,
        "typical_volume": 2136.05,
        "trend": 186.764836,
        "fair_value": 152.324234,
        "relative_strength": -7.449414,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -25.314226,
        "energy": 26.072486,
        "activity_lines": [
          184.822669,
          185.375638,
          187.266953,
          187.490945
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 190.0,
        "volume": 969,
        "typical_volume": 1855.25,
        "trend": 187.104118,
        "fair_value": 152.743077,
        "relative_strength": -5.245944,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 5.020883,
        "energy": 9.392105,
        "activity_lines": [
          186.458668,
          185.985456,
          187.412667,
          187.699665
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}