{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5533d00f-dd96-4d22-a04c-601b312b7619", "symbol": "EKT", "name": "Energiekontor AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 84.14, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -28.66, "architecture_energy": 51.496, "architecture_maturity": 12.73, "architecture_confidence": 80.27, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.74, "rotation_up": 15.13, "upward_expansion": 24.89, "deceleration": 51.92, "rotation_down": 72.01, "downward_expansion": 56.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.953334, 36.099091, 38.56292, 38.476415 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 34.950001, "trend_reference": 38.160102, "distance_from_trend": -0.084122, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 50.676202, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.310327, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.059407, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.035004, "excess_performance": -0.099643, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.084122, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036703, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.310327, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104963, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.150594, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.216281, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.035004, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.907173, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 94610, "relative_activity": 1.001582, "balance": 0.907173, "dry_up": 0.910028, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087649, "annualized_volatility": 0.442522, "from_high_reference": -0.33137, "from_low_reference": 0.186208 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.160102, "fair_value_reference": 50.676202, "structural_low": 29.463636, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.02439, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.057743, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.17873, "worst_return": -0.132791, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.060668, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.030376, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.406504, "worst_return": -0.101535, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.000563, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.116526, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.561445, "worst_return": -0.133412, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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37.823623, 39.405364, 38.955151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.1, "volume": 111857, "typical_volume": 111857.0, "trend": 38.187678, "fair_value": 50.923072, "relative_strength": -15.575761, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.282178, "energy": 58.382886, "activity_lines": [ 35.21, 36.751818, 38.937575, 38.685297 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.950001, "volume": 94610, "typical_volume": 94460.55, "trend": 38.160102, "fair_value": 50.676202, "relative_strength": -15.059407, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.659694, "energy": 51.496176, "activity_lines": [ 34.953334, 36.099091, 38.56292, 38.476415 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }