{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5537f990-4775-4e7a-b20d-f8495ce34921", "symbol": "NUS", "name": "Nusco S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.143, "architecture_energy": 53.076, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.639, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.6, "rotation_up": 27.41, "upward_expansion": 8.81, "deceleration": 60.37, "rotation_down": 48.85, "downward_expansion": 79.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.432867, 0.433873, 0.466738, 0.495613 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.443, "trend_reference": 0.554767, "distance_from_trend": -0.201466, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.867364, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.489257, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -46.59527, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.44625, "excess_performance": -0.617142, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.201466, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.172525, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.489257, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08763, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.465953, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045545, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.44625, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.801538, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 159000, "relative_activity": 0.634351, "balance": 0.801538, "dry_up": 1.006882, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087689, "annualized_volatility": 0.590437, "from_high_reference": -0.604464, "from_low_reference": 0.197297 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.554767, "fair_value_reference": 0.867364, "structural_low": 0.37, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.027426, "positive_rate": 0.391304, "directional_follow_through": 0.608696, "median_excess_return": -0.068785, "regime_survival": 0.869565, "best_return": 0.721519, "worst_return": -0.262069, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.030304, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.121555, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.23125, "worst_return": -0.240288, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.114703, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.250719, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.129386, "worst_return": -0.331646, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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0.482414, 0.522015 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.408, "volume": 406500, "typical_volume": 306300.0, "trend": 0.5765, "fair_value": 0.876588, "relative_strength": -51.056333, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.57081, "energy": 82.788209, "activity_lines": [ 0.407, 0.433909, 0.473667, 0.51043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.47, "volume": 235500, "typical_volume": 292575.0, "trend": 0.566167, "fair_value": 0.871883, "relative_strength": -42.80449, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.533159, "energy": 60.355121, "activity_lines": [ 0.425933, 0.435873, 0.471405, 0.503559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.443, "volume": 159000, "typical_volume": 250650.0, "trend": 0.554767, "fair_value": 0.867364, "relative_strength": -46.59527, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.142597, "energy": 53.076289, "activity_lines": [ 0.432867, 0.433873, 0.466738, 0.495613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }