{ "ticker": { "uuid": "553aeecd-b429-48da-9ea3-1a83190d744d", "symbol": "SPOL", "name": "iShares MSCI Poland UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.503, "architecture_energy": 84.718, "architecture_maturity": 44.899, "architecture_confidence": 82.18, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.12, "rotation_up": 82.19, "upward_expansion": 96.37, "deceleration": 39.34, "rotation_down": 11.12, "downward_expansion": 18.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 2954.5, 2891.927273, 2834.819048, 2774.782258 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 3068.0, "trend_reference": 2700.133333, "distance_from_trend": 0.13624, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1949.235257, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.573951, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 12.83908, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.177735, "excess_performance": 0.1265, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.13624, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062804, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.573951, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.1024, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.128391, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038205, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.177735, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.407247, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 115119, "relative_activity": 1.396108, "balance": 6.407247, "dry_up": 0.896915, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035164, "annualized_volatility": 0.223677, "from_high_reference": -0.01287, "from_low_reference": 0.672481 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2700.133333, "fair_value_reference": 1949.235257, "structural_low": 2357.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.017683, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.006969, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.104101, "worst_return": -0.100106, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.042452, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 0.03256, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.149629, "worst_return": -0.046957, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.160763, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.067801, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.220366, "worst_return": 0.029322, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"volume": 70409, "typical_volume": 92666.15, "trend": 2681.683333, "fair_value": 1938.297436, "relative_strength": 9.7523, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.807113, "energy": 68.020694, "activity_lines": [ 2884.633333, 2848.790909, 2804.209524, 2749.858602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3068.0, "volume": 115119, "typical_volume": 82457.1, "trend": 2700.133333, "fair_value": 1949.235257, "relative_strength": 12.83908, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.502717, "energy": 84.718401, "activity_lines": [ 2954.5, 2891.927273, 2834.819048, 2774.782258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }