{ "ticker": { "uuid": "553bcc73-7cc5-435c-adc8-b2fba119e45b", "symbol": "NBCE", "name": "NEUBERGER CHINA EQUITY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 79.139, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 6.725, "architecture_energy": 19.711, "architecture_maturity": 65.522, "architecture_confidence": 85.761, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.2, "rotation_up": 15.82, "upward_expansion": 40.9, "deceleration": 87.96, "rotation_down": 44.49, "downward_expansion": 34.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.448333, 40.463267, 40.539849, 39.601107 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 40.5299, "trend_reference": 38.36149, "distance_from_trend": 0.056526, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.254795, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.434443, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.485447, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.146493, "excess_performance": 0.020868, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.056526, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074254, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.434443, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060624, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.014854, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106343, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.146493, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.322775, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 686, "relative_activity": 0.19798, "balance": 0.322775, "dry_up": 2.218182, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061324, "annualized_volatility": 0.244868, "from_high_reference": -0.117572, "from_low_reference": 0.461383 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.36149, "fair_value_reference": 28.254795, "structural_low": 33.8168, "invalidation": "A 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"positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041958, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.252934, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00366, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.013702, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": 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"up", "direction": 25.232149, "energy": 21.716339, "activity_lines": [ 41.020307, 41.537151, 40.48017, 39.324265 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.0447, "volume": 4145, "typical_volume": 2960.45, "trend": 38.016263, "fair_value": 28.097792, "relative_strength": 2.932477, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.560271, "energy": 23.335537, "activity_lines": [ 40.000947, 41.077625, 40.478322, 39.401962 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.7451, "volume": 11642, "typical_volume": 3460.0, "trend": 38.171983, "fair_value": 28.170719, "relative_strength": 0.735746, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.166081, "energy": 23.775276, "activity_lines": [ 39.237073, 40.586793, 40.431254, 39.448983 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.5299, "volume": 686, "typical_volume": 3465.0, "trend": 38.36149, "fair_value": 28.254795, "relative_strength": 1.485447, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.724531, "energy": 19.711137, "activity_lines": [ 39.448333, 40.463267, 40.539849, 39.601107 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }