{ "ticker": { "uuid": "55420444-6586-4d2a-9f1c-9e2e0df6f9a1", "symbol": "GRINFRA", "name": "G R Infraprojects Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.59, "architecture_energy": 43.066, "architecture_maturity": 27.422, "architecture_confidence": 93.838, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.16, "rotation_up": 14.97, "upward_expansion": 10.08, "deceleration": 38.13, "rotation_down": 58.85, "downward_expansion": 81.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 879.469991, 889.908174, 897.873094, 900.43446 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 870.700012, "trend_reference": 909.603304, "distance_from_trend": -0.04277, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1219.017307, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.285736, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.273203, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.119055, "excess_performance": -0.075346, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.04277, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053401, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.285736, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071122, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.132732, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051084, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.119055, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.159095, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 653759, "relative_activity": 1.272617, "balance": 0.159095, "dry_up": 0.429689, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060725, "annualized_volatility": 0.28279, "from_high_reference": -0.350982, "from_low_reference": 0.109172 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 909.603304, "fair_value_reference": 1219.017307, "structural_low": 785.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.057674, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.05605, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.0657, "worst_return": -0.144064, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.202722, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.191926, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.101351, "worst_return": -0.216493, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.095444, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.127056, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.328078, "worst_return": -0.335563, 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"active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.056022, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.072711, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.105297, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.003978, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.039063, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007043, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00399, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.062061, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.128018, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.073625, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1205.960938, "volume": 156894, "typical_volume": 216950.2, "trend": 1132.794021, "fair_value": 1381.144877, "relative_strength": -2.746475, "stage": 1, 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25.797979, "activity_lines": [ 894.153321, 897.377266, 901.072381, 905.245316 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 884.099976, "volume": 52377, "typical_volume": 533531.6, "trend": 912.632926, "fair_value": 1221.524689, "relative_strength": -11.85678, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.236459, "energy": 34.475069, "activity_lines": [ 887.08665, 894.353626, 900.015474, 903.139809 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 870.700012, "volume": 653759, "typical_volume": 513712.1, "trend": 909.603304, "fair_value": 1219.017307, "relative_strength": -13.273203, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.589574, "energy": 43.066479, "activity_lines": [ 879.469991, 889.908174, 897.873094, 900.43446 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }