{ "ticker": { "uuid": "554df637-3f39-45e6-945c-09336a512a0a", "symbol": "LYBN", "name": "LyondellBasell Industries N.V.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 57.142, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -36.95, "architecture_energy": 76.309, "architecture_maturity": 27.812, "architecture_confidence": 65.392, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.41, "rotation_up": 32.2, "upward_expansion": 27.93, "deceleration": 43.02, "rotation_down": 50.81, "downward_expansion": 62.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 1039.130005, 1044.377455, 1116.870139, 1139.622273 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1048.650024, "trend_reference": 1116.707757, "distance_from_trend": -0.060945, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1379.034298, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.239577, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.712723, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.125221, "excess_performance": 0.179888, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.060945, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088739, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.239577, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.198343, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.017127, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.192366, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.125221, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.706897, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 246, "relative_activity": 3.215686, "balance": 0.706897, "dry_up": 0.803922, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024756, "annualized_volatility": 0.530915, "from_high_reference": -0.242405, "from_low_reference": 0.37803 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1116.707757, "fair_value_reference": 1379.034298, "structural_low": 931.950195, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.025355, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.11846, "worst_return": -0.130571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.067474, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.078291, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.028983, "worst_return": -0.093255, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.057156, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.090141, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.06463, "worst_return": -0.241562, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.260251, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.322391, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.475091, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-08", 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"activity_lines": [ 1043.427995, 1106.483993, 1180.734368, 1154.168339 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1034.369995, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 123.25, "trend": 1089.871889, "fair_value": 1389.697055, "relative_strength": 0.014136, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.792052, "energy": 74.680971, "activity_lines": [ 1034.369995, 1081.531086, 1164.467312, 1151.175512 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1034.369995, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 67.25, "trend": 1098.984967, "fair_value": 1386.704714, "relative_strength": 0.856308, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.822198, "energy": 73.726174, "activity_lines": [ 1034.369995, 1062.429632, 1147.712543, 1147.594745 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1034.369995, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 64.2, "trend": 1107.608362, "fair_value": 1382.823737, "relative_strength": 0.324925, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.022409, "energy": 72.205971, "activity_lines": [ 1034.369995, 1049.179632, 1130.917416, 1143.426037 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1048.650024, "volume": 246, "typical_volume": 76.5, "trend": 1116.707757, "fair_value": 1379.034298, "relative_strength": 1.712723, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.949939, "energy": 76.309263, "activity_lines": [ 1039.130005, 1044.377455, 1116.870139, 1139.622273 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }