{ "ticker": { "uuid": "554f2208-7ef7-4964-842d-7ea996f8ab40", "symbol": "VALEN", "name": "Vale S.A.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 56.462, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.923, "architecture_energy": 89.149, "architecture_maturity": 10.786, "architecture_confidence": 77.882, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.82, "rotation_up": 9.41, "upward_expansion": 21.98, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 83.11, "downward_expansion": 99.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 250.253334, 253.665455, 264.94781, 268.980279 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 250.0, "trend_reference": 273.171999, "distance_from_trend": -0.084826, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 221.802889, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.127127, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.681946, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.14966, "excess_performance": -0.094993, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.084826, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03342, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.127127, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148904, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.006819, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127155, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.14966, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.04695, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.04695, "dry_up": 0.256198, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020477, "annualized_volatility": 0.333562, "from_high_reference": -0.177632, "from_low_reference": 0.37599 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 273.171999, "fair_value_reference": 221.802889, "structural_low": 249.009995, 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"energy": 59.765475, "activity_lines": [ 265.722001, 274.668364, 277.993904, 276.526841 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 259.470001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1336.75, "trend": 270.847055, "fair_value": 221.233314, "relative_strength": 4.240277, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.675384, "energy": 64.624572, "activity_lines": [ 261.920001, 270.887092, 276.197761, 275.848626 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 253.800003, "volume": 9764, "typical_volume": 1536.3, "trend": 271.446332, "fair_value": 221.347566, "relative_strength": 2.579954, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -53.338664, "energy": 81.990095, "activity_lines": [ 258.030002, 266.842365, 273.952381, 274.748816 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 250.0, "volume": 1209, "typical_volume": 1228.15, "trend": 272.121999, "fair_value": 221.442891, "relative_strength": 0.566937, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -58.152239, "energy": 84.318524, "activity_lines": [ 255.053334, 262.532365, 271.47219, 273.365182 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 250.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1213.1, "trend": 272.588665, "fair_value": 221.540995, "relative_strength": 0.704756, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.569683, "energy": 91.150022, "activity_lines": [ 252.756001, 258.760183, 269.220571, 271.937956 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 250.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1188.35, "trend": 273.255332, "fair_value": 221.627731, "relative_strength": -0.401662, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.093549, "energy": 90.8552, "activity_lines": [ 251.138, 255.804546, 267.040381, 270.480623 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 250.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1179.75, "trend": 273.171999, "fair_value": 221.802889, "relative_strength": -0.681946, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.922912, "energy": 89.148636, "activity_lines": [ 250.253334, 253.665455, 264.94781, 268.980279 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }