{ "ticker": { "uuid": "554fb2e7-b213-4265-bf95-0d5bbf1cc8de", "symbol": "SLX", "name": "Silex Systems Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.569, "architecture_energy": 63.404, "architecture_maturity": 19.008, "architecture_confidence": 86.141, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.31, "rotation_up": 10.68, "upward_expansion": 13.57, "deceleration": 38.06, "rotation_down": 65.38, "downward_expansion": 84.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.761333, 5.010545, 5.332857, 5.505828 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.86, "trend_reference": 5.803667, "distance_from_trend": -0.162598, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.091667, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.045499, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.546212, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.200658, "excess_performance": -0.264364, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.162598, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.152131, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.045499, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.222979, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.275462, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.249738, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.200658, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.972453, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4761394, "relative_activity": 1.339616, "balance": 0.972453, "dry_up": 1.564979, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.15899, "annualized_volatility": 0.609372, "from_high_reference": -0.552074, "from_low_reference": 0.408696 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.803667, "fair_value_reference": 5.091667, "structural_low": 4.07, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.040675, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.036143, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.590426, "worst_return": -0.083799, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.363636, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.306476, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.529762, "worst_return": 0.013208, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.58642, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.544908, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.209091, "worst_return": 0.175309, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.299383, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.239765, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.60396, "worst_return": -0.081481, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.198, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.37156, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.147959, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.55, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016317, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.177083, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018182, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.455806, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.245658, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.102256, "active": 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3956952, "typical_volume": 4087088.6, "trend": 6.257, "fair_value": 5.061346, "relative_strength": -10.390399, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.522087, "energy": 27.05172, "activity_lines": [ 5.549333, 5.639091, 5.698619, 5.869355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.5, "volume": 6191243, "typical_volume": 4014148.8, "trend": 6.138333, "fair_value": 5.067115, "relative_strength": -29.20657, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.463248, "energy": 54.24962, "activity_lines": [ 5.220667, 5.420545, 5.579048, 5.756 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.66, "volume": 4993644, "typical_volume": 3977066.65, "trend": 6.006333, "fair_value": 5.073333, "relative_strength": -26.441286, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.902115, "energy": 57.841, "activity_lines": [ 4.986, 5.255455, 5.486143, 5.660624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.61, "volume": 6303326, "typical_volume": 4044170.55, "trend": 5.863, "fair_value": 5.081282, "relative_strength": -28.933816, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.35566, "energy": 62.631132, "activity_lines": [ 4.806667, 5.098, 5.394714, 5.570538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.86, "volume": 4761394, "typical_volume": 3554297.95, "trend": 5.803667, "fair_value": 5.091667, "relative_strength": -27.546212, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.568668, "energy": 63.403661, "activity_lines": [ 4.761333, 5.010545, 5.332857, 5.505828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }