{ "ticker": { "uuid": "555432ca-7a53-4f5b-b95b-a8e3d1cf43d5", "symbol": "TGG", "name": "T&G Global Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 56.708, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.319, "architecture_energy": 86.279, "architecture_maturity": 11.749, "architecture_confidence": 75.641, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.36, "rotation_up": 8.2, "upward_expansion": 21.5, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 80.14, "downward_expansion": 97.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.253333, 2.309273, 2.354429, 2.393226 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.26, "trend_reference": 2.435, "distance_from_trend": -0.071869, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.946346, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.16115, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.460658, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.124031, "excess_performance": -0.152305, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.071869, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011633, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.16115, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090103, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.064607, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14344, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.124031, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.629394, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10592, "relative_activity": 2.077005, "balance": 3.629394, "dry_up": 1.355093, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029272, "annualized_volatility": 0.240126, "from_high_reference": -0.189964, "from_low_reference": 0.158974 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.435, "fair_value_reference": 1.946346, "structural_low": 2.17, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.016949, "positive_rate": 0.342857, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.018189, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.079137, "worst_return": -0.0875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.043481, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.049593, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.101351, "worst_return": -0.152, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.073196, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.094099, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.028736, "worst_return": -0.144444, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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"start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.236364, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.16, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.027273, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030568, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004167, "active": false }, { 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"date": "2026-07-03", "close": 2.39, "volume": 489, "typical_volume": 7277.8, "trend": 2.435667, "fair_value": 1.937756, "relative_strength": 0.072421, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.079588, "energy": 16.082378, "activity_lines": [ 2.424, 2.410909, 2.428667, 2.445527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.39, "volume": 11757, "typical_volume": 7568.05, "trend": 2.437333, "fair_value": 1.940321, "relative_strength": -1.396906, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.116137, "energy": 17.219632, "activity_lines": [ 2.410667, 2.407818, 2.421571, 2.442581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.28, "volume": 4463, "typical_volume": 6038.7, "trend": 2.437, "fair_value": 1.941987, "relative_strength": -5.241286, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.187597, "energy": 66.845284, "activity_lines": [ 2.364, 2.386364, 2.405095, 2.43243 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.21, "volume": 2442, "typical_volume": 4856.0, "trend": 2.435667, "fair_value": 1.943141, "relative_strength": -8.522125, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.855444, "energy": 87.267904, "activity_lines": [ 2.305333, 2.354364, 2.383905, 2.417785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.23, "volume": 10145, "typical_volume": 4846.15, "trend": 2.435, "fair_value": 1.944359, "relative_strength": -7.100017, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.029014, "energy": 88.366573, "activity_lines": [ 2.266667, 2.328, 2.367095, 2.404516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.26, "volume": 10592, "typical_volume": 5099.65, "trend": 2.435, "fair_value": 1.946346, "relative_strength": -6.460658, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.319144, "energy": 86.279428, "activity_lines": [ 2.253333, 2.309273, 2.354429, 2.393226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }