{ "ticker": { "uuid": "55549406-b196-49e2-a27f-443dad208ca5", "symbol": "603991", "name": "Shenzhen Original Advanced Compounds Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.58, "architecture_energy": 20.611, "architecture_maturity": 67.555, "architecture_confidence": 91.828, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.25, "rotation_up": 25.91, "upward_expansion": 56.77, "deceleration": 88.32, "rotation_down": 33.18, "downward_expansion": 20.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 126.984, 131.54109, 126.255857, 120.129097 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 131.389999, "trend_reference": 110.662032, "distance_from_trend": 0.187309, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 62.510036, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.101902, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 42.985073, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.50677, "excess_performance": 0.549974, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.187309, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.213454, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.101902, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.1501, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.429851, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049576, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.50677, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.830111, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16233054, "relative_activity": 1.095905, "balance": 0.830111, "dry_up": 1.658631, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.152851, "annualized_volatility": 0.61503, "from_high_reference": -0.261854, "from_low_reference": 1.210352 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 110.662032, "fair_value_reference": 62.510036, "structural_low": 82.83027, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.041528, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": 0.021315, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.316279, "worst_return": -0.252065, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.032423, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.041686, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.400334, "worst_return": -0.236437, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.005116, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.010414, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.602522, "worst_return": -0.277741, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.027474, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.190235, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.173228, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022614, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.058383, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.589821, "energy": 48.795328, "activity_lines": [ 138.308665, 133.783272, 125.762047, 118.396444 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 111.650002, "volume": 17274249, "typical_volume": 14520143.9, "trend": 108.73741, "fair_value": 61.903214, "relative_strength": 26.213797, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.538578, "energy": 22.139595, "activity_lines": [ 128.844666, 130.816181, 125.094857, 118.66764 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 131.389999, "volume": 16233054, "typical_volume": 14812461.65, "trend": 110.662032, "fair_value": 62.510036, "relative_strength": 42.985073, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.580192, "energy": 20.611148, "activity_lines": [ 126.984, 131.54109, 126.255857, 120.129097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }