{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5558ed53-2f0f-4127-844d-b44f62a6bab8", "symbol": "AEP", "name": "American Electric Power Company, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 77.716, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 8.669, "architecture_energy": 8.447, "architecture_maturity": 51.603, "architecture_confidence": 83.575, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.46, "rotation_up": 25.47, "upward_expansion": 53.53, "deceleration": 91.12, "rotation_down": 26.01, "downward_expansion": 21.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 2237.2, 2236.327273, 2247.766133, 2244.944038 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2222.0, "trend_reference": 2196.9061, "distance_from_trend": 0.011422, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1777.710837, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.249922, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.367497, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.202197, "excess_performance": 0.256864, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011422, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060708, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.249922, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086769, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.063675, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003258, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.202197, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.04908, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.04908, "dry_up": 2.165698, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012774, "annualized_volatility": 0.279507, "from_high_reference": -0.047578, "from_low_reference": 0.202815 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2196.9061, "fair_value_reference": 1777.710837, "structural_low": 1848.282959, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.000503, "positive_rate": 0.619048, "directional_follow_through": 0.619048, "median_excess_return": -0.000599, "regime_survival": 0.47619, "best_return": 0.279392, "worst_return": -0.050218, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.000503, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": -0.010129, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.280171, "worst_return": -0.049124, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.001118, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.055161, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.280814, "worst_return": -0.007932, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.000503, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.000514, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": 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"volume": 0, "typical_volume": 17.2, "trend": 2196.9061, "fair_value": 1777.710837, "relative_strength": 6.367497, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.669394, "energy": 8.446655, "activity_lines": [ 2237.2, 2236.327273, 2247.766133, 2244.944038 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }