{ "ticker": { "uuid": "55596365-8abb-4ef2-bed0-2adb058fbc94", "symbol": "VNOM", "name": "Viper Energy Ut", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 74.5, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -28.496, "architecture_energy": 15.546, "architecture_maturity": 25.46, "architecture_confidence": 69.693, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.58, "rotation_up": 33.92, "upward_expansion": 26.21, "deceleration": 48.38, "rotation_down": 34.21, "downward_expansion": 30.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.248, 43.117273, 44.179217, 44.490384 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 40.82, "trend_reference": 44.142666, "distance_from_trend": -0.075271, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.593184, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.085835, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.798571, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.023191, "excess_performance": -0.210645, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.075271, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050212, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.085835, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.20395, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.127986, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104559, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.023191, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.364934, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10773670, "relative_activity": 1.235842, "balance": 0.364934, "dry_up": 0.903997, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063796, "annualized_volatility": 0.2947, "from_high_reference": -0.190258, "from_low_reference": 0.193599 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.142666, "fair_value_reference": 37.593184, "structural_low": 40.17, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.076734, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.04, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.16447, "worst_return": -0.07743, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.078285, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.129304, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.304341, "worst_return": 0.001199, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.196504, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.215355, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.558601, "worst_return": -0.136864, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.382683, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047858, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.137966, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.125742, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.115057, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": 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44.058049, 45.060049, 44.527595 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 42.03, "volume": 9307857, "typical_volume": 12321535.85, "trend": 43.226518, "fair_value": 37.06844, "relative_strength": -10.60732, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.792105, "energy": 50.803576, "activity_lines": [ 42.110667, 43.462221, 44.746008, 44.456261 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 44.38, "volume": 7215133, "typical_volume": 11689599.45, "trend": 43.474619, "fair_value": 37.211803, "relative_strength": -1.463081, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.315284, "energy": 39.521665, "activity_lines": [ 42.708, 43.424, 44.667389, 44.53068 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.13, "volume": 6074507, "typical_volume": 10032440.0, "trend": 43.741225, "fair_value": 37.357301, "relative_strength": 1.755686, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.080783, "energy": 11.305429, "activity_lines": [ 43.555333, 43.554, 44.664795, 44.637478 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.61, "volume": 7459689, "typical_volume": 9459914.55, "trend": 43.968737, "fair_value": 37.487749, "relative_strength": -0.028162, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.523431, "energy": 8.347584, "activity_lines": [ 44.101333, 43.659455, 44.604821, 44.693528 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.82, "volume": 10773670, "typical_volume": 8717676.7, "trend": 44.142666, "fair_value": 37.593184, "relative_strength": -12.798571, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.496347, "energy": 15.546078, "activity_lines": [ 43.248, 43.117273, 44.179217, 44.490384 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }