{ "ticker": { "uuid": "555a1343-0549-4b81-ba77-e84c0be4443e", "symbol": "XSMH", "name": "iShares S&P U.S. Small-Cap Index ETF (CAD-Hedged)", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.448, "architecture_energy": 58.153, "architecture_maturity": 70.504, "architecture_confidence": 63.092, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.93, "rotation_up": 47.63, "upward_expansion": 78.44, "deceleration": 72.23, "rotation_down": 28.25, "downward_expansion": 9.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.059335, 34.984127, 34.220053, 33.412445 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 35.610001, "trend_reference": 32.513819, "distance_from_trend": 0.095227, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.778418, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.28193, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.375287, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.114903, "excess_performance": -0.005518, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.095227, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059444, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.28193, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054449, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.023753, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011644, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.114903, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.735634, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 83500, "relative_activity": 0.312494, "balance": 1.735634, "dry_up": 0.520761, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025801, "annualized_volatility": 0.158057, "from_high_reference": -0.011931, "from_low_reference": 0.326532 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.513819, "fair_value_reference": 27.778418, "structural_low": 28.959999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.013082, "positive_rate": 0.62963, "directional_follow_through": 0.62963, "median_excess_return": -0.006283, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.071679, "worst_return": -0.074068, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.008582, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.042449, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.066031, "worst_return": -0.130772, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.030574, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.026153, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.141072, "worst_return": -0.121, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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}, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.650002, "volume": 147900, "typical_volume": 320960.0, "trend": 32.167819, "fair_value": 27.647702, "relative_strength": 2.518203, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.027878, "energy": 66.222116, "activity_lines": [ 34.932001, 34.689778, 33.782716, 33.032787 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.790001, "volume": 163500, "typical_volume": 294315.0, "trend": 32.347486, "fair_value": 27.709159, "relative_strength": 3.3212, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.541849, "energy": 53.17572, "activity_lines": [ 34.824668, 34.780252, 33.975075, 33.20196 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.610001, "volume": 83500, "typical_volume": 267205.0, "trend": 32.513819, "fair_value": 27.778418, "relative_strength": 2.375287, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.448358, "energy": 58.153435, "activity_lines": [ 35.059335, 34.984127, 34.220053, 33.412445 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }