{ "ticker": { "uuid": "555a17c4-440b-40e0-94bd-9c565f8bd184", "symbol": "002178", "name": "Shanghai Yanhua Smartech Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.41, "architecture_energy": 60.993, "architecture_maturity": 89.552, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.4, "rotation_up": 24.78, "upward_expansion": 11.15, "deceleration": 60.7, "rotation_down": 57.24, "downward_expansion": 84.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.382, 4.462182, 4.90119, 5.253376 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.5, "trend_reference": 5.702333, "distance_from_trend": -0.210849, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.581474, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.193761, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.296586, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.290221, "excess_performance": -0.297621, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.210849, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107476, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.193761, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.267568, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.302966, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028149, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.290221, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.343399, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 60130557, "relative_activity": 0.92997, "balance": 0.343399, "dry_up": 0.957038, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094701, "annualized_volatility": 0.306836, "from_high_reference": -0.436796, "from_low_reference": 0.125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.702333, "fair_value_reference": 5.581474, "structural_low": 4.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.015074, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.005448, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.290557, "worst_return": -0.244076, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.038084, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.006558, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.899705, "worst_return": -0.305281, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.100239, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.058956, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.329384, "worst_return": -0.373512, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.027823, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007702, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.081119, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045249, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015015, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010495, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.804685, "energy": 92.153525, "activity_lines": [ 4.556667, 4.914364, 5.356571, 5.648538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.21, "volume": 66501684, "typical_volume": 88565283.8, "trend": 5.903667, "fair_value": 5.569359, "relative_strength": -34.990662, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.320137, "energy": 92.198737, "activity_lines": [ 4.389333, 4.737273, 5.212952, 5.534473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.14, "volume": 61946700, "typical_volume": 76113355.0, "trend": 5.828, "fair_value": 5.571987, "relative_strength": -35.297985, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.180274, "energy": 88.414277, "activity_lines": [ 4.273333, 4.578364, 5.074333, 5.420688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.5, "volume": 58943960, "typical_volume": 68124012.1, "trend": 5.765333, "fair_value": 5.576859, "relative_strength": -27.576245, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.16071, "energy": 65.861195, "activity_lines": [ 4.33, 4.508545, 4.982905, 5.335011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.5, "volume": 60130557, "typical_volume": 64658599.85, "trend": 5.702333, "fair_value": 5.581474, "relative_strength": -30.296586, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.41018, "energy": 60.993349, "activity_lines": [ 4.382, 4.462182, 4.90119, 5.253376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }