{ "ticker": { "uuid": "555b0039-4ccd-4021-80fd-2852fb007592", "symbol": "VEU", "name": "Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Index Fund ETF Shares", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 79.889, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 50.772, "architecture_energy": 29.539, "architecture_maturity": 62.203, "architecture_confidence": 84.696, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.49, "rotation_up": 31.17, "upward_expansion": 59.71, "deceleration": 88.18, "rotation_down": 27.71, "downward_expansion": 21.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 1447.255973, 1450.568313, 1442.675127, 1425.508491 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1460.439941, "trend_reference": 1404.22109, "distance_from_trend": 0.040036, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1183.450968, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.234052, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.477407, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.081686, "excess_performance": 0.136353, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.040036, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030427, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.234052, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007218, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.044774, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077126, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.081686, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.454782, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 245, "relative_activity": 0.390687, "balance": 0.454782, "dry_up": 2.389571, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015499, "annualized_volatility": 0.116917, "from_high_reference": -0.011359, "from_low_reference": 0.154515 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1404.22109, "fair_value_reference": 1183.450968, "structural_low": 1309.030029, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.000596, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.005381, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.050717, "worst_return": -0.042255, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.002948, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.026672, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.101456, "worst_return": -0.113831, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.040143, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.064503, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.09749, "worst_return": -0.201617, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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1430.763599, 1412.892526 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1446.209961, "volume": 5268, "typical_volume": 655.8, "trend": 1392.949906, "fair_value": 1173.567877, "relative_strength": 3.828063, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.759201, "energy": 49.820129, "activity_lines": [ 1456.846647, 1455.646118, 1434.3629, 1416.576442 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1439.0, "volume": 349, "typical_volume": 664.6, "trend": 1397.238513, "fair_value": 1176.835872, "relative_strength": 3.73093, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.238525, "energy": 38.244281, "activity_lines": [ 1450.368652, 1453.308587, 1437.083479, 1419.547416 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1430.0, "volume": 132, "typical_volume": 652.75, "trend": 1400.804757, "fair_value": 1180.046175, "relative_strength": 2.3055, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.494582, "energy": 31.579984, "activity_lines": [ 1442.938656, 1449.050491, 1438.632235, 1421.66106 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1460.439941, "volume": 245, "typical_volume": 627.1, "trend": 1404.22109, "fair_value": 1183.450968, "relative_strength": 4.477407, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.771871, "energy": 29.539149, "activity_lines": [ 1447.255973, 1450.568313, 1442.675127, 1425.508491 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }