{ "ticker": { "uuid": "55663825-fa3e-40d7-bff2-66c367990b45", "symbol": "NAPR", "name": "Innovator Growth-100 Power Buffer ETF - April", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 56.999, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.881, "architecture_energy": 57.471, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 54.983, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.37, "rotation_up": 49.42, "upward_expansion": 80.2, "deceleration": 70.92, "rotation_down": 29.14, "downward_expansion": 9.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 59.19852, 59.077078, 58.845793, 58.046174 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 59.8424, "trend_reference": 56.885587, "distance_from_trend": 0.051978, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 49.823347, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.201092, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.274198, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.108398, "excess_performance": -0.017227, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.051978, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034241, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.201092, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016834, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032742, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018291, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.108398, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.508187, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23997, "relative_activity": 0.269132, "balance": 0.508187, "dry_up": 0.271481, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.011421, "annualized_volatility": 0.05784, "from_high_reference": -4.3e-05, "from_low_reference": 0.159734 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 56.885587, "fair_value_reference": 49.823347, "structural_low": 53.89, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.006199, "positive_rate": 0.775, "directional_follow_through": 0.775, "median_excess_return": -0.004925, "regime_survival": 0.825, "best_return": 0.057408, "worst_return": -0.09671, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.031676, "positive_rate": 0.846154, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": -0.009569, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.102607, "worst_return": -0.033714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.063939, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.017227, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.137533, "worst_return": -0.069133, "sufficient": true }, { 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58.848253, 58.906864, 58.55127, 57.682151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 58.9993, "volume": 18853, "typical_volume": 90615.75, "trend": 56.687667, "fair_value": 49.707637, "relative_strength": -1.406099, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.01264, "energy": 45.318652, "activity_lines": [ 58.893847, 58.914935, 58.66943, 57.842642 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 59.8424, "volume": 23997, "typical_volume": 89164.55, "trend": 56.885587, "fair_value": 49.823347, "relative_strength": -3.274198, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.880533, "energy": 57.471062, "activity_lines": [ 59.19852, 59.077078, 58.845793, 58.046174 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }