{ "ticker": { "uuid": "556c9257-5ced-4b7d-a7ac-d7b2f54c9fe4", "symbol": "EXR", "name": "Elixir Energy Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -59.045, "architecture_energy": 75.329, "architecture_maturity": 22.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.104, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.45, "rotation_up": 18.82, "upward_expansion": 26.12, "deceleration": 40.21, "rotation_down": 76.07, "downward_expansion": 63.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.076933, 0.092982, 0.10769, 0.108794 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.05, "trend_reference": 0.105667, "distance_from_trend": -0.526814, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.074984, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.333191, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.286595, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.342105, "excess_performance": -0.405811, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.526814, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.15189, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.333191, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.17418, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.422866, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.587177, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.342105, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.206122, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 101111441, "relative_activity": 3.602649, "balance": 0.206122, "dry_up": 1.668853, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.437692, "annualized_volatility": 1.10007, "from_high_reference": -0.714286, "from_low_reference": 0.639344 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.105667, "fair_value_reference": 0.074984, "structural_low": 0.048, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.030612, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.05868, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.021739, "worst_return": -0.225352, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.204082, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.194663, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.458333, "worst_return": -0.239437, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.265306, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.293092, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.5, "worst_return": -0.71831, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.197183, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.490909, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.222222, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.05, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.536585, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.985294, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.154545, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.21875, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.086, "volume": 6853502, "typical_volume": 4976925.5, "trend": 0.1129, "fair_value": 0.181231, "relative_strength": -35.484917, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 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0.115849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.093, "volume": 40386591, "typical_volume": 25369617.6, "trend": 0.105633, "fair_value": 0.075234, "relative_strength": 16.230843, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -7.757513, "energy": 9.402335, "activity_lines": [ 0.112333, 0.114545, 0.120495, 0.115097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.096, "volume": 17883260, "typical_volume": 25389695.05, "trend": 0.106567, "fair_value": 0.075292, "relative_strength": 18.52574, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.740589, "energy": 33.368105, "activity_lines": [ 0.106133, 0.110582, 0.118381, 0.114475 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.075, "volume": 27969929, "typical_volume": 26054206.35, "trend": 0.1065, "fair_value": 0.075228, "relative_strength": -10.359835, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.176982, "energy": 56.23222, "activity_lines": [ 0.0942, 0.103509, 0.114205, 0.112439 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.05, "volume": 101111441, "typical_volume": 28065862.3, "trend": 0.105667, "fair_value": 0.074984, "relative_strength": -42.286595, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -59.044593, "energy": 75.329468, "activity_lines": [ 0.076933, 0.092982, 0.10769, 0.108794 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }