{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5574b02c-6acd-4ff8-836f-663c5cf966df", "symbol": "SKN", "name": "S.Kijchai Enterprise Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.229, "architecture_energy": 44.27, "architecture_maturity": 48.586, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.59, "rotation_up": 21.95, "upward_expansion": 5.81, "deceleration": 55.76, "rotation_down": 59.28, "downward_expansion": 83.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.256667, 5.304545, 5.39, 5.526882 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 5.25, "trend_reference": 5.758333, "distance_from_trend": -0.088278, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.186917, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.012162, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.071126, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.166667, "excess_performance": -0.358992, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.088278, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052126, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.012162, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102744, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.230711, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047078, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.166667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.179219, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 161800, "relative_activity": 0.794169, "balance": 0.179219, "dry_up": 0.945714, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048352, "annualized_volatility": 0.207315, "from_high_reference": -0.265734, "from_low_reference": 0.05 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.758333, "fair_value_reference": 5.186917, "structural_low": 5.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.009455, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.007838, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.183628, "worst_return": -0.137405, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.009091, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.011979, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.11215, "worst_return": -0.236641, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.020234, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.074349, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.122855, "worst_return": -0.198473, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037383, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.120371, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027655, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.053571, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.395938, "energy": 82.120498, "activity_lines": [ 5.37, 5.446364, 5.611905, 5.791613 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 5.5, "volume": 132800, "typical_volume": 434930.0, "trend": 5.985, "fair_value": 5.134869, "relative_strength": -19.065543, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.86804, "energy": 52.095531, "activity_lines": [ 5.41, 5.44, 5.582381, 5.75828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 5.4, "volume": 8000, "typical_volume": 421195.0, "trend": 5.946667, "fair_value": 5.144486, "relative_strength": -23.340453, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.875625, "energy": 46.831351, "activity_lines": [ 5.41, 5.420909, 5.547143, 5.720538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.3, "volume": 469700, "typical_volume": 432855.0, "trend": 5.908333, "fair_value": 5.153347, "relative_strength": -24.634666, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.315277, "energy": 48.226902, "activity_lines": [ 5.376667, 5.390909, 5.507143, 5.678817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.3, "volume": 238500, "typical_volume": 357870.0, "trend": 5.868333, "fair_value": 5.162322, "relative_strength": -24.92892, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.203843, "energy": 44.581324, "activity_lines": [ 5.35, 5.369091, 5.472857, 5.63957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.3, "volume": 218300, "typical_volume": 246295.0, "trend": 5.835, "fair_value": 5.17107, "relative_strength": -24.678867, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.557526, "energy": 45.599455, "activity_lines": [ 5.326667, 5.353636, 5.445952, 5.602903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.2, "volume": 152100, "typical_volume": 207460.0, "trend": 5.793333, "fair_value": 5.178947, "relative_strength": -24.779729, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.452371, "energy": 46.928117, "activity_lines": [ 5.273333, 5.322727, 5.41381, 5.561935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.25, "volume": 161800, "typical_volume": 203735.0, "trend": 5.758333, "fair_value": 5.186917, "relative_strength": -23.071126, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.229403, "energy": 44.270049, "activity_lines": [ 5.256667, 5.304545, 5.39, 5.526882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }