{ "ticker": { "uuid": "557b243a-b0d0-4568-9995-20c89a7acdee", "symbol": "ALFA", "name": "Alfa Financial Software Holdings PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 93.771, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 3.124, "architecture_energy": 15.182, "architecture_maturity": 12.205, "architecture_confidence": 62.702, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.23, "rotation_up": 40.77, "upward_expansion": 35.47, "deceleration": 37.34, "rotation_down": 15.29, "downward_expansion": 41.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 163.306667, 160.574545, 158.33361, 160.43438 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 166.2, "trend_reference": 168.224714, "distance_from_trend": -0.012036, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 192.877552, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.138313, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.870317, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.152653, "excess_performance": -0.203888, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012036, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106185, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.138313, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024375, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.208703, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071232, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.152653, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.023814, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2503996, "relative_activity": 0.783608, "balance": 1.023814, "dry_up": 0.996277, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054943, "annualized_volatility": 0.356434, "from_high_reference": -0.340142, "from_low_reference": 0.184113 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 168.224714, "fair_value_reference": 192.877552, "structural_low": 140.358204, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.015909, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.024803, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.062112, "worst_return": -0.081699, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.065423, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.118736, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.173334, "worst_return": -0.201863, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.031288, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.068748, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.249857, "worst_return": -0.253306, 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"close": 157.8, "volume": 6422914, "typical_volume": 3364212.7, "trend": 174.832941, "fair_value": 192.631994, "relative_strength": -24.836659, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.264292, "energy": 25.549893, "activity_lines": [ 156.6, 155.983802, 156.054316, 162.812949 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 160.4, "volume": 2218431, "typical_volume": 3373920.75, "trend": 172.965089, "fair_value": 192.655111, "relative_strength": -23.63642, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.00333, "energy": 14.78014, "activity_lines": [ 158.453333, 156.726452, 156.16526, 161.881792 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 161.6, "volume": 3524058, "typical_volume": 3408519.9, "trend": 171.287193, "fair_value": 192.692321, "relative_strength": -23.381009, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.187541, "energy": 14.811035, "activity_lines": [ 160.026667, 157.71609, 156.545454, 161.14856 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 163.8, "volume": 4487818, "typical_volume": 3292802.95, "trend": 169.7826, "fair_value": 192.791648, "relative_strength": -22.534517, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.166844, "energy": 11.327924, "activity_lines": [ 161.573333, 159.003636, 157.303464, 160.665515 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 166.2, "volume": 2503996, "typical_volume": 3195471.7, "trend": 168.224714, "fair_value": 192.877552, "relative_strength": -20.870317, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.124485, "energy": 15.182092, "activity_lines": [ 163.306667, 160.574545, 158.33361, 160.43438 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }