{ "ticker": { "uuid": "557ef32b-62b1-4a20-8d04-1b66444cf017", "symbol": "AFRY", "name": "Afry AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.942, "architecture_energy": 61.028, "architecture_maturity": 73.758, "architecture_confidence": 91.751, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.21, "rotation_up": 15.81, "upward_expansion": 11.71, "deceleration": 42.29, "rotation_down": 64.38, "downward_expansion": 85.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 104.166668, 106.058184, 109.540949, 112.616594 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 106.5, "trend_reference": 117.936128, "distance_from_trend": -0.096969, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 143.186154, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.256213, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.259983, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.181044, "excess_performance": -0.242538, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.096969, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095048, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.256213, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040591, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.2826, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00765, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.181044, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.391593, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 901713, "relative_activity": 0.643691, "balance": 0.391593, "dry_up": 1.463089, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060491, "annualized_volatility": 0.273158, "from_high_reference": -0.35529, "from_low_reference": 0.132979 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 117.936128, "fair_value_reference": 143.186154, "structural_low": 94.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.022338, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": -0.021668, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 0.210724, "worst_return": -0.1805, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.008491, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.049527, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.138999, "worst_return": -0.246177, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.054902, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.17198, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.129327, "worst_return": -0.395008, 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56.871726, "activity_lines": [ 107.346669, 109.492729, 112.506131, 115.922723 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 101.400002, "volume": 1430785, "typical_volume": 1378418.15, "trend": 120.68344, "fair_value": 143.479038, "relative_strength": -30.697106, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.904592, "energy": 56.946666, "activity_lines": [ 105.060002, 107.749093, 111.209177, 114.597216 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 102.800003, "volume": 2225627, "typical_volume": 1423807.2, "trend": 119.316195, "fair_value": 143.324138, "relative_strength": -30.040654, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.261893, "energy": 69.709902, "activity_lines": [ 103.880003, 106.425456, 110.160243, 113.443446 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 106.5, "volume": 901713, "typical_volume": 1400848.5, "trend": 117.936128, "fair_value": 143.186154, "relative_strength": -28.259983, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.942204, "energy": 61.027922, "activity_lines": [ 104.166668, 106.058184, 109.540949, 112.616594 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }