{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5585a088-e315-45de-aed2-74358c135895", "symbol": "XTL", "name": "STATE STREET SPDR S&P TELECOM ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.516, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 6.075, "architecture_energy": 14.75, "architecture_maturity": 49.04, "architecture_confidence": 79.876, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.09, "rotation_up": 16.65, "upward_expansion": 41.17, "deceleration": 85.4, "rotation_down": 39.35, "downward_expansion": 35.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 211.251333, 213.837759, 218.175937, 213.156252 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 215.19, "trend_reference": 202.978912, "distance_from_trend": 0.060159, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 118.240639, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.819933, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.561812, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.26702, "excess_performance": 0.141395, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.060159, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.125822, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.819933, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.27565, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.085618, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.233814, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.26702, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.161414, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 327191, "relative_activity": 0.634599, "balance": 1.161414, "dry_up": 0.540114, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065836, "annualized_volatility": 0.219268, "from_high_reference": -0.127514, "from_low_reference": 0.756415 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 202.978912, "fair_value_reference": 118.240639, "structural_low": 169.304145, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.0267, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.024155, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.053686, "worst_return": -0.086309, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.022365, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.05446, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.257756, "worst_return": -0.151439, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.171573, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.084945, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.630306, "worst_return": -0.103394, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.764676, "energy": 21.750447, "activity_lines": [ 219.130679, 222.776705, 219.718812, 210.195659 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 208.52, "volume": 222107, "typical_volume": 506468.85, "trend": 197.51818, "fair_value": 115.584207, "relative_strength": 11.639687, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.602453, "energy": 18.575851, "activity_lines": [ 215.092475, 219.844511, 219.385976, 211.027118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 207.54, "volume": 153002, "typical_volume": 503547.7, "trend": 199.314685, "fair_value": 116.457999, "relative_strength": 10.989489, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.160855, "energy": 12.839648, "activity_lines": [ 212.164, 216.97919, 218.840195, 211.673687 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 208.16, "volume": 411603, "typical_volume": 514816.25, "trend": 201.055545, "fair_value": 117.333652, "relative_strength": 9.366734, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.503332, "energy": 14.382539, "activity_lines": [ 210.252667, 214.544342, 218.231019, 212.244352 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 215.19, "volume": 327191, "typical_volume": 515586.8, "trend": 202.978912, "fair_value": 118.240639, "relative_strength": 8.561812, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.074932, "energy": 14.749902, "activity_lines": [ 211.251333, 213.837759, 218.175937, 213.156252 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }