{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5585f9ac-0cfc-4862-bf3a-190f808c19af", "symbol": "RIGS", "name": "ALPS ETF TRUST RIVERFRONT STRATEGIC INCOME FD", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 94.118, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.462, "architecture_energy": 12.335, "architecture_maturity": 43.6, "architecture_confidence": 76.279, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.54, "rotation_up": 25.65, "upward_expansion": 7.1, "deceleration": 43.54, "rotation_down": 38.87, "downward_expansion": 71.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.601222, 22.60243, 22.603941, 22.610027 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 22.739, "trend_reference": 22.618285, "distance_from_trend": 0.005337, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.433548, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.060907, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.19557, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 6.2e-05, "excess_performance": -0.125563, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005337, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000849, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.060907, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015193, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.101956, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007253, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 6.2e-05, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.32897, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33528, "relative_activity": 0.988914, "balance": 1.32897, "dry_up": 1.111393, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02161, "annualized_volatility": 0.069976, "from_high_reference": -0.030845, "from_low_reference": 0.120693 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.618285, "fair_value_reference": 21.433548, "structural_low": 20.29013, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.001718, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": -0.008485, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.014965, "worst_return": -0.026108, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.00291, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.049085, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.026792, "worst_return": -0.038958, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.005616, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.030337, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.054948, "worst_return": -0.041943, "sufficient": true 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18.536776, "energy": 10.81418, "activity_lines": [ 22.664857, 22.613705, 22.612894, 22.621276 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.5045, "volume": 25283, "typical_volume": 42343.05, "trend": 22.616702, "fair_value": 21.378828, "relative_strength": -8.399243, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.48358, "energy": 10.381441, "activity_lines": [ 22.613075, 22.593328, 22.602316, 22.614099 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.585, "volume": 57876, "typical_volume": 43737.4, "trend": 22.61871, "fair_value": 21.396624, "relative_strength": -7.296433, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.988177, "energy": 9.369047, "activity_lines": [ 22.598778, 22.593153, 22.601206, 22.612053 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.4653, "volume": 34035, "typical_volume": 44099.65, "trend": 22.617005, "fair_value": 21.413984, "relative_strength": -8.461038, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.684561, "energy": 21.491699, "activity_lines": [ 22.548292, 22.570895, 22.589429, 22.602156 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.739, "volume": 33528, "typical_volume": 33903.85, "trend": 22.618285, "fair_value": 21.433548, "relative_strength": -10.19557, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.462003, "energy": 12.334882, "activity_lines": [ 22.601222, 22.60243, 22.603941, 22.610027 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }