{ "ticker": { "uuid": "55867b2d-5971-42e2-91f1-8853ff4ada42", "symbol": "6581", "name": "Taiwan Steel Union Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 83.46, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 23.205, "architecture_energy": 11.923, "architecture_maturity": 12.628, "architecture_confidence": 41.437, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.71, "rotation_up": 34.34, "upward_expansion": 58.97, "deceleration": 60.31, "rotation_down": 26.54, "downward_expansion": 18.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 107.8, 107.645455, 107.830952, 107.446835 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 107.0, "trend_reference": 106.451196, "distance_from_trend": 0.005155, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 96.429576, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.109618, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.774504, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.049906, "excess_performance": -0.391466, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005155, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017525, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.109618, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0344, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.277745, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027581, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.049906, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.130682, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 93044, "relative_activity": 0.79268, "balance": 1.130682, "dry_up": 1.125577, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024443, "annualized_volatility": 0.098394, "from_high_reference": -0.069565, "from_low_reference": 0.090679 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 106.451196, "fair_value_reference": 96.429576, "structural_low": 100.961433, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.018357, "positive_rate": 0.6875, "directional_follow_through": 0.6875, "median_excess_return": -0.003281, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.065, "worst_return": -0.036866, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.046948, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.02468, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.153191, "worst_return": -0.025192, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.123471, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.041537, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.301705, "worst_return": -0.01862, "sufficient": true }, 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105.878224 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 109.0, "volume": 243000, "typical_volume": 113055.2, "trend": 104.742826, "fair_value": 94.734678, "relative_strength": -31.189874, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.70052, "energy": 32.555709, "activity_lines": [ 108.7, 108.454545, 107.455915, 106.16095 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 109.0, "volume": 58200, "typical_volume": 113202.85, "trend": 104.915531, "fair_value": 94.92937, "relative_strength": -33.760522, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.109281, "energy": 34.585047, "activity_lines": [ 108.933333, 108.609091, 107.722114, 106.435607 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 106.0, "volume": 82020, "typical_volume": 115538.3, "trend": 105.019986, "fair_value": 95.097638, "relative_strength": -31.994333, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.29582, "energy": 22.184155, "activity_lines": [ 108.066667, 108.172727, 107.66432, 106.505572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 106.5, "volume": 74017, "typical_volume": 118039.15, "trend": 105.061734, "fair_value": 95.275198, "relative_strength": -34.081248, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.433617, "energy": 15.006563, "activity_lines": [ 107.433333, 107.854545, 107.634687, 106.601057 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 106.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 115692.4, "trend": 105.166981, "fair_value": 95.456631, "relative_strength": -31.151782, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.671331, "energy": 12.640452, "activity_lines": [ 106.9, 107.572727, 107.583216, 106.693849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 109.0, "volume": 106000, "typical_volume": 116082.3, "trend": 105.38731, "fair_value": 95.657962, "relative_strength": -24.318777, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.017669, "energy": 19.568545, "activity_lines": [ 107.433333, 107.763636, 107.757072, 106.94114 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 107.0, "volume": 175237, "typical_volume": 117174.5, "trend": 105.620344, "fair_value": 95.845366, "relative_strength": -26.626458, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.519907, "energy": 8.84665, "activity_lines": [ 107.3, 107.609091, 107.724852, 107.045185 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 109.0, "volume": 163071, "typical_volume": 119974.55, "trend": 105.93592, "fair_value": 96.048911, "relative_strength": -23.556192, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.493892, "energy": 18.540094, "activity_lines": [ 107.966667, 107.827273, 107.872494, 107.263227 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 108.0, "volume": 97124, "typical_volume": 119877.2, "trend": 106.218162, "fair_value": 96.243278, "relative_strength": -25.359502, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.89275, "energy": 19.700405, "activity_lines": [ 108.1, 107.827273, 107.904762, 107.396393 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 107.0, "volume": 93044, "typical_volume": 117378.95, "trend": 106.451196, "fair_value": 96.429576, "relative_strength": -27.774504, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.205492, "energy": 11.922574, "activity_lines": [ 107.8, 107.645455, 107.830952, 107.446835 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }